"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

POLLS - Trump ahead in multiple states

Trump - Cruz
The 2016 GOP Ticket?

  • I think we are seeing the 2016 GOP ticket.  The opportunist Ted Cruz is fading and The Donald growing in strength.  
  • Polls show Rubio will lose his home state of Florida to Trump. That will kill the Rubio campaign. But Rubio as VP would be key to winning Florida for the Republicans in the fall.
  • Here are a smattering of new polls.

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Donald Trump still leads the GOP group with 31 percent, a slight increase over the previous poll on Feb 5. However Marco Rubio has kept pace with Trump’s growth with nearly 23 percent.
Cruz is at 18.7 percent followed by Ben Carson at 8.1 percent and John Kasich at 7.9 percent. It’s the first time Rubio has polled higher than Cruz in Georgia.
“I believe that most of those people who supported Jeb Bush would come to Marco Rubio because of what he stands for, because of his message,” State Sen. Judson Hill told Channel 2’s Lori Geary.  (WSBTV)

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According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, Trump leads Kasich 31% to 26% in Ohio, where voters are already casting ballots via early and absentee voting. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas finishes third at 21%, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has 13%.

For Kasich, the poll marks a recovery from a Quinnipiac survey this fall that showed him trailing both Trump and Ben Carson, whose candidacy now amounts to an asterisk in the presidential race. Kasich's campaign received a boost this month when he finished second in New Hampshire's primary.  (USAToday)

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With the GOP field narrowing after Jeb Bush’s decision Saturday to drop out of the race, Donald Trump is trouncing all his rivals in the Bay State. Trump takes 50% of the vote, giving him a better than 3-to-1 advantage over Marco Rubio (16%); a 37-point edge over John Kasich (13%); and a 5-to-1 margin over Texas Senator Ted Cruz (10%). 

Ben Carson, who earned 23% of the vote in an October 2015 Emerson poll, has faded to 2% in this recent survey.

Although Trump’s favorability numbers have been under water in some early primary states, he enjoys an impressive +32 differential (64% favorable to 32% unfavorable) among likely GOP primary voters in Massachusetts.  (media.wix.com)

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Trump leads Virginia Republicans, with Rubio close behind.

The Republican field is divided into two groups: contenders and everyone else. Donald Trump leads the group of contenders among likely Republican primary voters with 28%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22% and Ted Cruz at 19%. After those top three there is a big dropoff with Ben Carson and John Kasich each picking up 7% and Jeb Bush trailing the field at 4%.

“While Trump is leading in Virginia, Rubio and Cruz are within striking distance,” said Kidd. “Carson, Kasich, and Bush are very long shots at this point, two weeks out.”  (cnu.edu)

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Cruz had 37 percent of the vote in the poll. Trump, the businessman and TV personality who finished first in two of the three states that have already voted, had the support of 29 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 15 percent.
The rest of the candidates were far behind: Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race after the South Carolina primary, had 6 percent; John Kasich, 5 percent; and Ben Carson, 4 percent. 
“These numbers reflect what most  of us think was going on in Texas: It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.  (texastribune.org)

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