"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Rubio leads Walker by 10 and Bush by 27 head to head among Republicans

Pick One:
Rubio - Walker
Walker - Rubio

  • If the GOP does not take Florida and some of the Democrat Great Lakes states then the election is over before it starts.  A combo of Rubio - Walker is the winning ticket.

(From Hot Air)  -  No poll this early can rightly be called “significant” but this seems … significant-ish. True, there’ll be no head-to-head contests in the primaries (until the very end), in which case all this really tells us is preferences within a certain niche. 
But that niche is crucial: These three guys have emerged early as the favorites among the center-right and donor class, the groups that typically decide the nomination. They’re also widely viewed as the three most conventionally “electable” candidates. If Rubio’s leading both of his competitors by double digits, that’s an inkling of how undecideds might break as the field narrows.
We’ve already reached the stage in the campaign where fans of different candidates are whining at me on Twitter that I’m biased against their guy, so here you go, Rubio fans. Pure data sunshine from me to you.

The sample size of Republicans is relatively small, so that Rubio/Walker match-up may be much closer in reality than those numbers suggest. Same goes for Rubio/Bush, but in that case, Rubio’s lead is so large that even a “much closer” race probably still means a double-digit advantage. That’s bad, bad news for Jeb, a guy whose name recognition is supposed to give him an edge over a comparative unknown like his old protege. The “Bush” brand, which is still well regarded within the GOP, isn’t helping him here. And don’t think the GOP’s big donors, who are backing Jeb now but don’t want to ride a loser all the way to the finish line, won’t notice.
Even worse for Jeb, Rubio’s out to a conspicuous lead among Latinos both head to head against Bush and against a larger GOP field. The sample size of Latino voters here is very small at just 80 people, but these results are encouraging enough for Team Marco that a bigger poll of Latinos is in order ASAP. When given a choice between Rubio and Bush, Latino voters prefer the former 46/14. (In a Rubio/Walker race, they split 48/17.) 
When Rubio is lumped in a field with Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson, he takes 29 percent of the Latino vote versus just 12 percent for Fiorina, the next highest vote-getter. If Latinos nationally are starting to pay special attention to Rubio, Bush’s donor-class hype as the one man who can heal the rift with a group alienated by immigration policy will be up in smoke. Once that happens, the only thing to recommend Bush over Rubio if you’re a billionaire GOPer looking for a horse to back is his family connections. Rubio’s a better retail pol in almost every way and, unlike Jeb on Iraq, he won’t spend a week during the campaign stepping on rakes rhetorically.
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