NEWS AND VIEWS THAT IMPACT LIMITED CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT
"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Can Trump win the Electoral College?
One Version Electoral College Map
In this map Trump is one state away from a win.
From Market Watch:
Conservative blogger John Hinderakernotes that on the basis of that map the shift of Nevada, New Hampshire (4 votes), and that Maine congressional district (not broken out in FiveThirtyEight), would give Trump the victory with exactly 270 votes.
However, he thinks that Trump will have an easier time of it than that, also winning Michigan (16 votes) and perhaps even Pennsylvania, for a comfortable margin of victory.
Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza, on the other hand, who has been relentlessly anti-Trump, says “Hillary Clinton remains in the driver’s seat.”
Cillizza considers only four states — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada — as real battleground states. Awarding the candidates all the states now leaning toward them, he has Clinton winning 273 to 197. In other words, even if Trump won all four of the battlegrounds, Clinton becomes president, in his view.
Polls still have plenty of time to fluctuate. The first presidential debate next week could prove pivotal.
Politico analyst Stephen Shepard heralded this breakthrough last week in an article headlined “Trump cracks the Electoral College lock.” In six weeks, he noted, Clinton’s lead in Electoral College votes has gone from apparently “insurmountable” to a virtual dead heat.
Come election night on Nov. 8, in short, we may once again be watching an Electoral College standoff as we wait for definitive results from Florida.