The Dominating Donald
(Monmouth Poll) - Donald Trump’s sizable lead in Maryland’s GOP primary puts him on track to claim all 38 delegates available. The Monmouth University Poll finds that concerns about Trump’s suitability for office expressed by the state’s Republican governor hold little sway with voters there.
Currently, 47% of likely Republican primary voters in Maryland support Trump compared to 27% who support John Kasich and 19% who intend to vote for Ted Cruz.
Trump’s strongest area of support is in congressional districts 1 and 5, the eastern part of the state bordering the Chesapeake Bay, where he earns 54% support to 24% for Kasich and 11% for Cruz. Trump also does well in districts 6 and 8, which encompass the western part of the state, with 44% of the vote to 25% for Kasich and 23% for Cruz.
Trump leads by a smaller margin in the state’s remaining four congressional districts that run along the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to the DC suburbs, getting 43% of the vote there to 31% for Kasich and 20% for Cruz. “If Trump’s current level of support translates to each of Maryland’s eight congressional districts, he may be able to run the table in the all-important delegate contest,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Trump holds a large advantage among very conservative voters (58% to 27% for Cruz and 9% for Kasich), but a much smaller edge among somewhat conservative voters (38% to 33% for Kasich and 21% for Cruz).
He splits the moderate vote with Kasich at 41% apiece, while Cruz gets 10%. Kasich has a slight lead over Trump among college graduates (40% to 35%, with Cruz at 17%), but Trump more than makes up for this by garnering the support of nearly 6-in-10 voters who do not have a college degree (58%), compared to only 21% who support Cruz and 14% who support Kasich. Trump also enjoys a large lead among male voters (55% to 24% for Kasich and 13% for Cruz) that augments his smaller lead among female voters (37% to 30% for Kasich and 25% for Cruz).
“Even though Kasich is competitive among certain demographic groups, Trump’s overwhelming support among men without a college education accounts for his substantial lead statewide,” said Murray