Thursday, April 14, 2016
50% Trump sweep in Connecticut GOP primary
(Emerson Poll) - In a primary season where every state now counts—on both sides of the ballot—Donald Trump is positioned to sweep the 28 delegates at stake in the April 26 Connecticut GOP primary.
In a statewide poll conducted by Emerson College, 50% of likely Republican voters say they will vote for the billionaire businessman. Ohio’s John Kasich is in second place with 26% of the vote. Ted Cruz, with 17%, risks being shut out of the delegate count if he fails to win 20% of the statewide or Congressional district vote. Six percent (6%) of GOP primary voters are undecided.
Trump holds a solid lead in all five Congressional districts, by margins of 18 to 38 points. Kasich finishes second, and Cruz is third in all five districts. In a tight Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 49% to 43%, with 6% of likely voters undecided.
Connecticut is a closed primary, same-day registration state. When Independents and Republican voters in the polling sample who expressed support for Sanders were added to the Democratic primary numbers, Sanders closed the current 6-point gap with Clinton to 1 point (47% to 46%). This suggests that if Sanders can persuade his non-Democratic supporters in Connecticut to reregister as Democrats, he could pull off a win without relying on a last-minute swing by younger registered Democrats.
Sanders leads Clinton 58% to 39% among voters age 18-34. Clinton holds a 51% to 42% edge in the 35-54 age group and is up 59% to 41% among voters 55-74. Gender is a significant factor in the Democratic contest, with male voters preferring Sanders over Clinton 51% to 42% and women favoring the former Secretary of State 55% to 36%. Sanders is winning 41% to 35% among those 75 and over.
Connecticut’s 55 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally, based on the primary vote. Democrats view Sanders very favorably; 80% have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 15% unfavorable, a net +65. Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable rating is net +32, with 65% of Democrats having a positive opinion versus 33% with a negative impression of her. However, she commands more loyalty: 72% of Democrats who find her favorable say they will vote for her in the Connecticut primary, compared to 47% who are loyal to Sanders. Among Democratic voters, Kasich’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 55/35.
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