"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
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Friday, January 8, 2016

Top Races in 2016: The Plains States & Mountain Region

Utah GOP Rep. Mia Love is running against the Democrat Congressman she defeated in 2014.

Roaring on to November

  • My quandary:  The Democrats are fucking Marxists and the Big Government loving Republicans are open borders whores for Wall Street. I am a man without a party.
  • Following these races is like watching a football game when you hate both teams.

(Roll Call)  -  Here is a look at the most competitive House and Senate races in 2016. The Plains Region covers Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.
Iowa 3rd District: 
Democrats are targeting freshman Rep. David Young, but the congressman’s district isn’t as favorable for a challenge as GOP Rep. Rod Blum’s 1st District. Obama won the 3rd with 51 percent in 2012 and 52 percent in 2008. 
Three Democrats are in the race including investment executive Mike Scherzan, Iraq War veteran/former Steve King challenger Jim Mowrer, and businessman Desmund Adams. This is a must-win seat for Democrats in a race that will probably be dominated by spending from the campaign committees.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.
3rd Congressional district of Iowa

Missouri Senate: 
Republican Sen. Roy Blunt isn’t on the verge of defeat, but if his race against Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander gets close, it’s probably a sign that the Republican majority in the Senate has been lost. 
Blunt has been in Washington since before Mark McGwire was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals and the senator has family connections to lobbyists, who aren’t particularly popular these days. But Kander is punching above his weight class and must prove he can keep up his fundraising pace. The last sitting secretary of state elected to the Senate was Democrat Max Cleland in Georgia in 1996.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Republican Favored.
Nebraska 2nd District: 
Republicans don’t have a lot of House takeover opportunities, but this is one of them. Democrat Brad Ashford knocked off GOP Rep. Lee Terry in 2014, although it was more about Terry’s ineptness than Ashford’s strength. But after a rocky start in office, Ashford has apparently righted the ship and Republicans aren’t exactly flocking to get into the race. 
Retired Brig. Gen. Don “Bits” Bacon and former state Sen. Chip Maxwell are running on the Republican side, while others are waiting for the political climate to improve or wait for the 66-year-old Ashford to retire.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.

The Mountain Region covers Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming.
Colorado 6th District: 
House Democrats wouldn’t have been sad to see GOP Rep. Mike Coffman leave this seat to run for the Senate, but they’re still confident they can win this competitive district, even though the congressman is seeking re-election. 
Coffman easily defeated the hyped former state Speaker Andrew Romanoff in 2014, but Democrats believe state Sen. Morgan Carroll is even better. President Barack Obama won the 6th by 6 points in 2012 and 9 points in 2008, so this is the type of district Democrats must win to get back to the majority. It won’t be easy.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Leans Republican.

6th Congressional district of Colorado

United States House of Representatives elections, 2014
RepublicanMike Coffman (incumbent)143,46751.90
DemocraticAndrew Romanoff118,84742.99
LibertarianNorm Olsen8,6233.12
GreenGary Swing5,5031.99
Total votes276,440100.0
Republican hold

Colorado Senate: 
Republicans aren’t sure whether they have a candidate in the race who can defeat Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet after Coffman and Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler declined to run. A handful of Republicans are running and state Rep. Jon Keyser is expected to join them in January, but all of them have to ramp up their campaigns. 
Democrats would improve their chances of taking back the majority in the Senate by re-electing Bennet and holding the Nevada open seat so any takeovers would add to the party’s net gain.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Leans Democratic.
Utah 4th District: 
Democrat Doug Owens narrowly lost to Mia Love, 50 percent to 47 percent, last cycle and is back for a rematch. The congresswoman didn’t help herself with stories about flight reimbursements but, unlike in 2014, Owens will face hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of dollars of attack ads next year. 
As the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress, Love looks to have a bright future in the party, if she can win re-election.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Safe Republican, but could get more competitive.
Wyoming At-Large: 
GOP Rep. Cynthia M. Lummis’ retirement creates an open seat. And even though Garfield disputed the state’s existence, Wyoming will host a competitive Republican primary next August. Races in the Equality State tend to develop late, but the field of replacement candidates could include state Rep. Tim Stubson and attorney Liz Cheney, former Vice President Dick Cheney’s daughter. 
Lummis is the only woman in the House Freedom Caucus, so the primary could influence the balance of power within the GOP conference.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Safe Republican.

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An Equal Time point of view

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