"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Top Races in 2016: The Midwest & The South

Florida GOP Congressman Carlos Curbelo is a major target of the Dems.

Roaring on to November

  • My quandary:  The Democrats are fucking Marxists and the Big Government loving Republicans are open borders whores for Wall Street. I am a man without a party.
  • Following these races is like watching a football game when you hate both teams.

(Roll Call)  -  A look at the most competitive House and Senate races for 2016. The Midwest Region covers Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Wisconsin Senate: 
Republican Ron Johnson knocked off Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold by 5 points in 2010, but Feingold is back to try to reclaim his seat. Even though Feingold lost re-election, he starts the rematch with a positive image and Republicans have to remind voters about why they fired him or what they should like about him in the years since he was tossed from office. 
Johnson is laser focused on fixing the economy and hasn’t bothered with some of the niceties of the Senate.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Pure Tossup, but Johnson might be a slight underdog at this stage.
Ohio Senate: 
National Democrats got the candidate they wanted to challenge GOP Sen. Rob Portman, but it remains to be seen whether former Gov. Ted Strickland will be successful. Strickland had an underwhelming $1.5 million in the bank on Sept. 30 and has yet to scare young Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld out of the Democratic primary. 
Meanwhile, Portman’s numbers are soft and he must re-introduce himself to voters with some of the $11 million he had in the bank at the end of September. If the election were held today, Strickland would probably win, but Republicans have time to drive up Strickland’s negatives.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Leans Republican.
10th Congressional District of Illinois

Illinois 10th District: 
A race between Republican Robert Dold against Democrat Brad Schneider is becoming a biennial affair. If Schneider wins the Democratic primary against Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering, the two men will face off for the third consecutive election. 
The last two races were decided by a couple of points or less, and there is no reason to believe this race won’t be close as well. If Democrats can’t win here, it’s going to be a very long night for their party.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Pure Tossup.

The South region includes: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.
Florida Senate: 
The Democratic primary between the establishment favorite, Rep. Patrick Murphy, and colorful Rep. Alan Grayson doesn’t have any signs of slowing down. The Republican field includes a handful of candidates and may not even be set. 
Even with the nominations in doubt, the general election to replace GOP Sen. Marco Rubio is likely to be very competitive and could be impacted by the competitiveness of the presidential election at the top of the ballot. The race is a virtual must-win for Democrats to get back to the majority.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.
Florida’s 26th District: 
Republican Carlos Curbelo knocked off embattled Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia in 2014 and Democrats are targeting the seat in 2016. A court-ordered redraw of the congressional map made the district more Democratic, boosting the chances of Democrat Annette Taddeo. 
But Curbelo won’t be easy to unseat, particularly with $1.2 million in campaign funds at the end of September. Democrats must win the seat to make a dent in the GOP majority.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.
North Carolina Senate: 
Democrats failed to get a top-tier recruit against GOP Sen. Richard Burr, but they haven’t given up completely. A combination of Democratic state Rep. Deborah Ross developing into a top candidate, Burr stumbling through a primary against 2014 candidate Greg Brannon, and Republicans imploding at the presidential level could put this seat at risk. 
Burr starts 2016 in good shape for re-election, but if this race is a barn-burner, it could be a sign of bigger problems for Republicans across the country.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Leans Republican.

Read More . . . .

Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2014
RepublicanCarlos Curbelo83,03151.46
DemocraticJoe García78,30648.54
Total votes161,337100.00
Republican gain from Democratic

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