"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Top Races in 2016: Mid-Atlantic States & New England

New Hampshire GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte faces a tough campaign.

Roaring on to November

  • My quandary:  The Democrats are fucking Marxists and the Big Government loving Republicans are open borders whores for Wall Street. I am a man without a party.
  • Following these races is like watching a football game when you hate both teams.

(Roll Call)  -  This is the second in a series of regional looks at the most competitive House and Senate races to watch in 2016.
The Mid-Atlantic region includes Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Pennsylvania Senate: 
Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak lost a close race to Republican Patrick J. Toomey in 2010, but that wasn’t enough to inspire the confidence of Democratic strategists who recruited former gubernatorial chief of staff Katie McGinty into the race. Either Democrat should be credible enough to give the senator a tough re-election race. Toomey had $8.6 million on hand on Sept. 30 and isn’t likely to get tripped up by silly mistakes, but he might be vulnerable to the winds of the presidential race.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup/Tilts Republican.
New York’s 24th District: 
Republican John Katko defeated Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei in one of the late-breaking races of 2014 and with one of the most stunning margins of victory. Katko now represents a district which President Barack Obama won with 56 percent in 2008 and 57 percent in 2012. Democrats have three candidates in the race including Colleen Deacon, former district director to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who doesn’t have a voting record and could be a difficult opponent for Republicans.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call: Tossup.
New York's 24th Congressional District

Pennsylvania’s 8th District: 
GOP Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick didn’t have many problems holding this competitive district, but his retirement creates an open seat takeover opportunity for Democrats. Democrats have a competitive primary between state Rep. Steve Santarsiero and small-business owner/2014 candidate Shaughnessy Naughton. The local GOP organization has coalesced behind state Rep. Scott Petri, but Fitzpatrick’s younger brother is serious enough about running to move back to Pennsylvania after working for the FBI in California, according to GOP sources.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup/Tilts Republican.

8th Congressional District of Pennsylvania

The New England region includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.
New Hampshire Senate: 
After nine months of waiting, the matchup is finally set in one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan is challenging Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte in a race that could decide which party controls the Senate in 2017. Ayotte didn’t have a lot of trouble winning in a strong Republican year in 2010, while Hassan has never faced a candidate a strong as Ayotte.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tilts Republican.
Maine’s 2nd District: 
Republican Bruce Poliquin defeated then-state Sen. Emily Cain last cycle to capture the Democratic open seat, and he hasn’t let up. The congressman had $1.3 million in his campaign account on Sept. 30 in advance of a potentially competitive re-election race. President Barack Obama won the district in 2008 by 12 points and in 2012 by 9 points, so it’s a virtual must-win for Democrats to get back to the majority, but Poliquin won’t be easy to unseat. Cain is running again and had $368,000 in the bank on Sept. 30, but faces Bangor City Councilman Joe Baldacci, brother of the former governor and congressman, in the Democratic primary.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.
New Hampshire’s 1st District: 
This seat switches party hands more often than I vacuum out the family minivan. The seat has switched party control in four of the past five elections. Republican Frank C. Guinta overcame his 2012 re-election loss by defeating Democratic Rep. Carol Shea Porter last cycle. She’s running again and could face Guinta for the fourth consecutive election. Guinta is still dealing with negative headlines from past campaign finance issues, but Republicans’ chances of holding the seat might improve if Guinta loses in the primary.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.

Read More . . . .

2nd Congressional District of Maine

Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 2014
RepublicanBruce Poliquin133,32047.03
DemocraticEmily Ann Cain118,56841.83
IndependentBlaine Richardson31,33711.05
Total votes283,473100
Republican gain from Democratic

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