"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Top Races in 2016: The West & Southwest

GOP Rep. Joe Heck makes run for the Nevada Senate seat.

Roaring on to November

  • My quandary:  The Democrats are fucking Marxists and the Big Government loving Republicans are open borders whores for Wall Street. I am a man without a party.
  • Following these races is like watching a football game when you hate both teams.

(Roll Call)  -  This is the eighth in a series looking at the most competitive House and Senate races in 2016

Nevada Senate: 
The race to replace Minority Leader Harry Reid should be one of the best in the country. The parties are confident in their recruits, both of whom have clear primary paths. The general election features battle-tested GOP Rep. Joe Heck against Democratic state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who has been elected statewide twice against nominal opposition. Republicans could use a victory in Nevada to cancel out a loss in another state, but it won’t be easy in a presidential year.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.

Nevada 3rd District: 
Democrats haven’t been able to defeat Heck, but his open seat should be a top takeover target. President Barack Obama won the district narrowly in 2012, and by a wider 9 points in 2008. A handful of Republicans are running including state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, former congressional candidate Danny Tarkanian, Assemblywoman Michele Fiore, think tank CEO Andy Matthews and others. Democrats are still actively looking for a top recruit, but they can’t afford to let this opportunity slip away.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.
Nevada's 3rd District. Obama narrowly carried
the vote 50% to 49% in 2012.

California 17th District: 
The seat isn’t at risk of a Republican takeover, but it’s one of the most competitive in the country. In 2014, Democrat Ro Khanna narrowly lost to Democratic Rep. Michael M. Honda, 52 percent to 48 percent, in a race that went all the way to November. Khanna is back, and Honda is under investigation by the Office of Congressional Ethics. In 2014, Honda only improved from 48 percent to 52 percent from the primary to the general election, which doesn’t give the eight-term lawmaker a high ceiling.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Safe Democrat.

Arizona’s 1st District: 
Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s Senate bid creates an open-seat headache for Democrats. But Republicans have a crowded primary including state Speaker David Gowan, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, former Secretary of State Ken Bennett, and wealthy rancher/2014 candidate Gary Kiehne. Democrats look poised to nominate former GOP state Sen. Tom O’Halleran. The late August primary virtually guarantees the campaign committees will shoulder much of the financial burden in the general election.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.
Arizona's 1st and 2nd districts are targets.

Rep. Will Hurd is the first black Republican
elected to Congress from Texas.

Texas’ 23rd District: 
For much of last cycle, even GOP strategists didn’t give Will Hurd a chance of winning. But he defeated Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego, 50 percent to 48 percent. Gallego is running again to reclaim the sprawling west Texas district and hoping that the presidential year will draw more Hispanic voters. Hurd had $856,000 in the bank at the end of September compared to a modest $307,000 for Gallego. But the former congressman is beloved by Democrats and he should have the financial help he needs to stay competitive.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Tossup.

Arizona’s 2nd District: 
To some Democrats, this seat still belongs to former Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, but they will have a hard time taking it back from Republican Martha McSally. She lost a close race to Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in 2012 and came back to defeat him in 2014. McSally had a whopping $1.7 million in the bank on Sept. 30 while Democrats are headed for a late August primary between state Rep. Victoria Steele and former state Rep. Matt Heinz.
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating: Leans Republican.

Read More . . . .

A Top Target
The Texas district, covers 
48,000 square miles between San Antonio and El Paso, includes most of the Mexican border and all or parts of 29 counties.

Texas's 23rd Congressional District, 2014
RepublicanWill Hurd57,45949.78
DemocraticPete Gallego (Incumbent)55,03747.68
LibertarianRuben Corvalan2,9332.54
Total votes115,429100
Republican gain from Democratic

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