The Federalist: 33 toss-up Congressional seats

Monday, November 5, 2012

33 toss-up Congressional seats

Indian-American California GOP candidate Ricky Gill is in a hot contest.

Republicans could gain eight seats in the House

The latest data released today by Real Clear Politics on the races for Congress show Republicans likely to hold 224 seats if the election were held today with 33 seats too close to call. The Democrats are favored in 178 of the 435 races for seats in Congress. Republicans took control of Congress in the 2010 elections and look to hold those gains this year.

Commonly referred to as the Congress, or the United States House of Representatives, which is the lower house of two houses of Congress, all 435 seats are up for election every day years as they are this year.

The Examiner reports the Real Clear Politics (RCP) report on the state of Congressional races will be cited here as a starting point for this analysis of the Congressional races. RCP lists 157 seats as safe Democratic seats and 193 seats as safe Republican seats, and those will be assumed to be won by those the Democrats and Republicans accordingly.

That leaves 85 congressional races that will be analyzed here. So the score here is, so far, Republicans lead 193-157 in the contest to win a at least a 218 seat majority of the 435 seats in Congress.

There are 33 toss-up House seats around the nation. If the Republicans can do well among these races, they can make gains and increase their majority in Congress. Democrats would have to win all these races and would make some gains but fall far short of regaining control of Congress.

Arizona 1: Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick runs against Republican nominee Jonathan Paton. This will be close but more likely to be won by Democrat Kirkpatrick.

California 7: Incumbent Republican Dan Lungren faces Democrat challenger Ami Bera. Lungren should be able to hold on to his seat in this election.

California - Ricky Gill -- "New Direction"

California 9: Democrat Congressman Jerry McNerney faces Republican nominee Ricky Gill in this race. This should be a close race.

California 10: This contest is between Republican incumbent Jeff Denham and Democrat challenger Jose Hernandez. This race should favor the incumbent. Leans Republican.

California 24: Incumbent Democrat Lois Capps vs. Republican challenger Abel Maldonado. This race will be close but the incumbent win it. Incumbency for a Democrats in a close race in a Democrat-leaning state suggests a Democrat win.

California 26: This is an open seat being contested by Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Julia Brownley. This race will narrowly go to the Democrats.

California 36: This race is between Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack and Democratic nominee Raul Ruiz. This race leans Republican.

California 52: Incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray faces Democrat challenger Scott Peters. While this will be close the incumbent will have the edge and get reelected to Congress.

Colorado 6: Republican Congressman Mike Coffman is challenged by Democrat Joe Miklosi in a close race the incumbent should win.

Connecticut 5: Running for an open seat Andrew Roraback, the Republican, opposes Democratic nominee Elizabeth Esty. Leans Democrat.

Florida - Allen West for Congress

Florida 18: This race is between conservative Republican Allen West and liberal Democrat Patrick Murphy. Murphy has found himself facing questions about bad behavior in his past while West is surging in the polls. A recent survey by Democrat-leaning leaning Public Policy Polling has West leading by nine percent. West will win this election.

Georgia 12: Democrat incumbent John Barrow races challenger Lee Anderson. This race leans Republican.

Illinois 10: Incumbent Republican Robert Dold faces Democrat candidate Brad Schneider. This race leans Republican.

Illinois 12: An open seat race between Democrat Bill Enyart and Republican Jason Plummer, this one leans Republican.

Illinois13: This is another open seat race that is between Democrat David Gill and Republican Rodney Davis. This one will also narrowly go Republican.

Illinois 17: This race features first term Republican Bobby Schilling running against Democrat Cheri Bustos. Schilling will hold on to this seat and beat the conventional wisdom that expects him to lose.

Iowa 3: This open seat race is between Republican Tom Latham and Democrat Leonard Boswell. Iowa is trending toward the Republican side and this close race should go to Latham.

Iowa 4: Popular Congressman Steve King faces Christie Vilsack, the wife of former Democrat Governor Tom Vilsack. King will easily reelected in this race.

Kentucky 6: Democrat incumbent Ben Chandler is challenged by Republican Andy Barr. This seat leans Democrat.

Michigan - Dan Benishek for Congress

Michigan 1: Incumbent Congressman Dan Benishek, elected in 2010, face Democrat Gary McDowell. A September poll from Public Policy Polling finds McDowell 44 percent to 42 percent. Benishek will survive the challenge and get reeleted.

Michigan 11: This is an open seat race between Republican Kerry Bentivolio and Democrat Syed Taj. This one is expected to go Republican, after the suprise resignation of Congressman Thaddeus McCotter set up this contest, in what is generally a Republican leaning district.

Minnesota 8: Incumbent Republican Chip Cravaack seeks reelection against Democrat Rick Nolan in a district that has been gradually growing more Republican. This trend will continue and Cravaack will hold on to this seat.

North Carolina 7: Incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre seeks reelection against Republican challenger David Rouzer. In a close election incumbency makes a difference, this seat will go for the Democrats.

New Hampshire 1: Incumbent Republican Frank Guinta faces a challenge from former Democrat Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, who he defeated in a close race in 2010. Guinta has done everything he needs to do to win a close district and will be reelected this year.

Nevada 4: This is a newly created seat, should go Republican with Danny Tarkanian, the son of the well-known UNLV basketball coach.

New York - Randy Altschuler for Congress

New York 1: This race features incumbent Democrat Tim Bishop running against Republican Randy Altschuler. This race leans Republican.

New York 21: Democrat incumbent Bill Owens, who defeated conservative Doug Hoffmany promising to oppose ObamaCare then went to Congress and voted for it. Republican challenger Matt Doneny will score the upset and win this race.

New York 27: Incumbent Democrats Kathy Hochul faces Republican challenger Chris Collins. Collins could win this one in a close race.

Ohio 6: This race is between incumbent Republican Bill Johnson and Democrat challenger Charlie Wilson. This race leans Republican.

Ohio 16: This is an open seat race between Democrat Betty Sutton and Republican Jim Renacci. Ohio will narrowly go Republican for Romney and that might just tip the balance in this race to the Republican nominee Renacci.

Pennsylvania 12: This race features incumbent Democrat Mark Critz, who was elected in a close race in 2010, running against Republican Keith Rothfus. Although it will be a close race, the Democrat incumbent will be reelected.

Texas 23: Incumbent Republican Francisco “Quico” Canseco is seeking reelection against Democrat Pete Gallego. This is a Republican-leaning district where the incumbent will hold on to his seat in a close election.

Utah - Mia Love for Congress

Utah 4: In this race, incumbent liberal Democrat Jim Matheson faces a strong challenge from Satatoga Springs Mayor and Republican nominee Mia Love. The most recent poll listed by RCP shows Love winning by six percent and the momentum seems to be going that way in this race. Republican Love will win this race.

Without these 33 close races, the score was 226 Republicans to 176 Democrats. Of these 33, Republicans are expected to win 25 and Democrats will win only eight. That brings the final tally to 251 Republicans and 184 Democrats in the next Congress. If this holds true on election day, it will be a gain of eight seats for Republicans.
.
(The Examiner)

No comments:

Thomas Pinckney, Federalist

Commissioned as captain in the 1st South Carolina Regiment of the Continental Army. After seeing much action, he became an aide-de-camp to General Horatio Gates. He was captured by the British at the disastrous Battle of Camden in 1780. After recovering from his wounds, he was released in a prisoner exchange. In 1781 he fought under Lafayette in Virginia. Appointed by President George Washington to be the U.S. minister to Great Britain served as Envoy Extraordinary to Spain. The Federalist Party made him a candidate in the 1796 presidential election as the intended running-mate of John Adams. Served as Congressman and Governor of South Carolina. Served as a major general in the Army during the War of 1812.

Henry Lee III, Federalist

Major General "Light-Horse Harry" Lee fought at the battles of Paulus Hook, Guilford Court House, Eutaw Springs, Yorktown and the Whiskey Rebellion. Federalist Congressman from Virginia, Governor of Virginia. Father of Robert E. Lee. In 1812 Lee was attacked by a Jeffersonian mob of Democratic-Republicans while defending a Federalist newspaper from attack. Lee and the other Federalists were beaten and tortured by the mob over the next three hours. Lee was left partially blinded after hot wax was poured into his eyes. The men were left for dead. All were severely injured, and one Federalist, General James Lingan, died.

Frederick Frelinghuysen, Federalist

In the War of Independence he served in the New Jersey militia as an artillery captain, seeing action at Trenton and Monmouth. Attained the rank of colonel. Member of the Continental Congress. Served in the New Jersey General Assembly. Member of the New Jersey convention that ratified the United States Constitution in 1787. President George Washington appointed him as brigadier general in the United States Army for the 1790 campaign against the western Indians. Commissioned major general in the New Jersey militia in 1794, during the Whiskey Rebellion. Elected to the United States Senate.

Stephen Van Rensselaer, Federalist

Van Rensselaer served in the New York Assembly and Senate. He served as the Federalist Lt. Governor under John Jay. In 1786, Van Rensselaer was made a major of the militia. As a Major General in the War of 1812 he led an army in an invasion of Canada and fought at the Battle of Queenston Heights. In 1813 Van Rensselaer was the Federalist candidate for Governor of New York earning 48% of the vote. A shift of only 1,800 votes would have made him Governor. In 1822 he was elected to Congress as a Federalist serving until 1829.

WILLIAM PATERSON, Federalist

James Hillhouse, Federalist

Hillhouse served as captain in Governor's Foot Guards in the Revolutionary War. He was a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives, Congressman from Connecticut at-large, 1791–96, and a Federalist Party U. S. Senator from Connecticut, 1796–1810. He was the anti-slavery leader of the Congress in the early days of the Republic. After the Louisiana Purchase of 1803, Hillhouse fought to bar the importation of slaves into the Louisiana Territory. "I consider slavery as a serious evil," he proclaimed, "and wish to check it wherever I have authority." Two of Hillhouse's amendments restricting slavery passed the Congress and were signed into law.

Oliver Ellsworth, Federalist

In 1777 he was chosen as one of Connecticut's representatives in the Continental Congress. Served at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia as a delegate from Connecticut. On June 20, 1787 he proposed the use of the name the United States to identify the nation under the authority of the Constitution. United States Senator from Connecticut. Ellsworth was the principal exponent in the Senate of Alexander Hamilton's economic program. In 1796 Ellsworth was appointed by President George Washington to be Chief Justice of the United States. Served as United States Envoy Extraordinary to the Court of France. Ellsworth was a candidate in the 1796 United States Presidential election, receiving eleven votes in the electoral college.

Robert Goodloe Harper, Federalist

At the age of fifteen, Harper joined a volunteer corps of Cavalry and served in the American Revolutionary Army. Harper was elected as a Federalist Congressman from South Carolina (1795 - 1801). In 1798 at a dinner in Philadelphia honoring John Marshall, a group of U.S. Congressmen were discussing a recent demand made by the government of France. French vessels had been plundering US ships in a piratical manner. French foreign minister Talleyrand said the attacks would be stopped if the US paid him $250,000 and gave France 50,000 pounds sterling and a $100 million loan. As toasts were made, Harper sent his own defiant reply to the French with this toast: “Millions for defense but not one cent for tribute.” Harper served in the War of 1812, attaining the rank of major general. He moved to Maryland and was elected as a Federalist to the US Senate. He was an unsuccessful Federalist candidate for Vice President in the 1816 election. He also received one electoral vote for Vice President in the 1820 election.

Jacob Read, Federalist

Alexander Contee Hanson, Federalist

Member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Editor of the "Federal Republican", a Federalist Party newspaper in Baltimore. Four days after the beginning of the War of 1812 a mob of pro-war Democrat-Republicans destroyed his newspaper office. The paper moved to another building where Hanson was joined by a group of armed allies. When that building was besieged by another mob, Hanson and his group fired, killing two. Hanson and his group surrendered to the militia and were escorted to jail. That evening yet another mob stormed the jail. Hanson was beaten and left for dead. Hanson was elected as a Federalist to Congress in 1812 and 1814. In 1816 he was elected as a Federalist to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate until his death in 1819 at the age of 33.

William Bingham, Federalist

As a merchant he brought full loads of munitions & guns for the war. Served as a diplomat for Congress to France. Bingham marshaled the Second Troop of Philadelphia Light Horse. He served in the Continental Congress, 1st Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, State Senator, and US Senator. Federalists agreed to hold preliminary votings at the Bingham Estate before propositions were brought before Congress publicly, thus creating unanimity among party lines. Alexander Hamilton sought Bingham as his mentor in managing taxes, tariffs, and in constructing a national bank.

Ezekiel Whitman, Federalist

Whitman practiced law in New Gloucester, Maine and in Portland, Maine (both communities a district of Massachusetts until 1820). In 1808 Whitman was elected as a Federalist Congressman from Massachusetts and served one term. In 1816 he was again elected as a Federalist to the US House serving from 1817 to 1821. In 1819 he was a delegate to the convention that prepared the constitution which led to Maine's statehood. In 1820 he was elected as a Federalist Congressman from the new state of Maine serving until 1822. Chief Justice of the Maine Supreme Court from 1841 to 1848.

David Cobb, Federalist

Cobb studied medicine in Boston and practiced in Taunton, Massachusetts. He was a member of the Massachusetts Provincial Congress in 1775; lieutenant colonel of Jackson’s regiment in 1777 and 1778, serving in Rhode Island and New Jersey; was aide-de-camp on the staff of General George Washington; appointed major general of militia in 1786. Fought in the New York and New Jersey Campaign, the Battles of Springfield, Monmouth, Rhode Island and Shay's Rebellion. He served the Federalist Party as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, President of the State Senate and Congressman.

Josiah Parker, Federalist

In 1775 Parker enlisted in the Continental Army. He was commissioned a major in the 5th Virginia Regiment in 1776 and became its colonel in 1778. His regiment served in Virginia under General Charles Lee and was transferred to George Washington. The regiment thereafter saw action at the Battles of Trenton, Princeton, Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth and the Siege of Charleston. During Cornwallis's Virginia campaign in 1781, the notorious Colonel Tarleton ransacked his home. He was elected to the First US Congress from Virginia serving for twelve years.

William Stephens Smith, Federalist

Smith married Abigail "Nabby" Adams, the daughter of President John Adams, and so was a brother-in-law of President John Quincy Adams, and an uncle of Charles Francis Adams. Served in the Revolutionary Army as aide-de-camp to General John Sullivan. Fought in the Battle of Long Island, was wounded at Harlem Heights, Battle of White Plains, was promoted to lieutenant colonel at the Battle of Trenton, fought at the Battle of Monmouth and Newport. He was on the staff of General Lafayette, became an adjutant in the Corps of Light Infantry, then transferred to the staff of George Washington. Elected as a Federalist Congressman from New York.

Oliver Wolcott, Jr., Federalist

John Rutledge, Jr., Federalist

Rutledge served as Congressman from South Carolina. A passionate Federalist, he supported Aaron Burr against Jefferson, founding the Charleston Courier (predecessor of the Post and Courier) to support his causes. Joining the South Carolina Militia in 1799, Rutledge served as commander of the Twenty-eighth Regiment in the War of 1812. He subsequently commanded the Seventh Brigade from 1816 until his death. Rutledge's life was fraught with controversy. Catching his wife (mother to his nine children) in a "clandestine visit" with Dr. Horace Senter, Rutledge challenged him to a duel, fatally wounding the doctor.

John Sergeant, Federalist

Member of the Pennsylvania state house of representatives 1808-1810; elected as a Federalist to Congress and served from 1815, to 1823. Sergeant was a strong backer of Henry Clay's American System and the Second Bank of the United States, and even traveled to Europe to negotiate loans to the Bank. He was a strong opponent of slavery who voted against the Missouri Compromise. In 1826 he was an envoy to the Panama Congress. Elected to Congress as an Adams candidate 1827 to 1829. Failing re-election he became legal counsel to the Bank of the United States. Sergeant was the Vice Presidential running mate in Henry Clay's campaign on the National Republican ticket in 1832. Elected as a Whig to Congress serving from 1837 to 1841.

John Laurance, Federalist

Philip Barton Key, Federalist

Key had been a Loyalist in the American Revolution. He served in the Maryland Loyalists Battalion as a captain. Key fought with the British Army from 1777 to 1781, until he was captured by the Spanish in Pensacola, Florida with the rest of his battalion. After the war he served as Mayor of Annapolis & member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Appointed a Federal Judge by John Adams. He was a Counsel to Justice Samuel Chase during Chase's Jefferson ordered impeachment show-trial in 1805. Elected as a Federalist to Congress from Maryland (1807 - 1813). Francis Scott Key was his nephew.