"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Monday, November 5, 2012

33 toss-up Congressional seats

Indian-American California GOP candidate Ricky Gill is in a hot contest.

Republicans could gain eight seats in the House

The latest data released today by Real Clear Politics on the races for Congress show Republicans likely to hold 224 seats if the election were held today with 33 seats too close to call. The Democrats are favored in 178 of the 435 races for seats in Congress. Republicans took control of Congress in the 2010 elections and look to hold those gains this year.

Commonly referred to as the Congress, or the United States House of Representatives, which is the lower house of two houses of Congress, all 435 seats are up for election every day years as they are this year.

The Examiner reports the Real Clear Politics (RCP) report on the state of Congressional races will be cited here as a starting point for this analysis of the Congressional races. RCP lists 157 seats as safe Democratic seats and 193 seats as safe Republican seats, and those will be assumed to be won by those the Democrats and Republicans accordingly.

That leaves 85 congressional races that will be analyzed here. So the score here is, so far, Republicans lead 193-157 in the contest to win a at least a 218 seat majority of the 435 seats in Congress.

There are 33 toss-up House seats around the nation.  If the Republicans can do well among these races, they can make gains and increase their majority in Congress. Democrats would have to win all these races and would make some gains but fall far short of regaining control of Congress.

Arizona 1: Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick runs against Republican nominee Jonathan Paton. This will be close but more likely to be won by Democrat Kirkpatrick.

California 7: Incumbent Republican Dan Lungren faces Democrat challenger Ami Bera. Lungren should be able to hold on to his seat in this election.

California  -  Ricky Gill -- "New Direction"

California 9: Democrat Congressman Jerry McNerney faces Republican nominee Ricky Gill in this race. This should be a close race.

California 10: This contest is between Republican incumbent Jeff Denham and Democrat challenger Jose Hernandez. This race should favor the incumbent. Leans Republican.

California 24: Incumbent Democrat Lois Capps vs. Republican challenger Abel Maldonado. This race will be close but the incumbent win it. Incumbency for a Democrats in a close race in a Democrat-leaning state suggests a Democrat win.

California 26: This is an open seat being contested by Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Julia Brownley. This race will narrowly go to the Democrats.

California 36: This race is between Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack and Democratic nominee Raul Ruiz. This race leans Republican.

California 52: Incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray faces Democrat challenger Scott Peters. While this will be close the incumbent will have the edge and get reelected to Congress.

Colorado 6: Republican Congressman Mike Coffman is challenged by Democrat Joe Miklosi in a close race the incumbent should win.

Connecticut 5: Running for an open seat Andrew Roraback, the Republican, opposes Democratic nominee Elizabeth Esty. Leans Democrat.

Florida  -  Allen West for Congress

Florida 18: This race is between conservative Republican Allen West and liberal Democrat Patrick Murphy. Murphy has found himself facing questions about bad behavior in his past while West is surging in the polls. A recent survey by Democrat-leaning leaning Public Policy Polling has West leading by nine percent. West will win this election.

Georgia 12: Democrat incumbent John Barrow races challenger Lee Anderson. This race leans Republican.

Illinois 10: Incumbent Republican Robert Dold faces Democrat candidate Brad Schneider. This race leans Republican.

Illinois 12: An open seat race between Democrat Bill Enyart and Republican Jason Plummer, this one leans Republican.

Illinois13: This is another open seat race that is between Democrat David Gill and Republican Rodney Davis. This one will also narrowly go Republican.

Illinois 17: This race features first term Republican Bobby Schilling running against Democrat Cheri Bustos. Schilling will hold on to this seat and beat the conventional wisdom that expects him to lose.

Iowa 3: This open seat race is between Republican Tom Latham and Democrat Leonard Boswell. Iowa is trending toward the Republican side and this close race should go to Latham.

Iowa 4: Popular Congressman Steve King faces Christie Vilsack, the wife of former Democrat Governor Tom Vilsack. King will easily reelected in this race.

Kentucky 6: Democrat incumbent Ben Chandler is challenged by Republican Andy Barr. This seat leans Democrat.

Michigan  -  Dan Benishek for Congress


Michigan 1: Incumbent Congressman Dan Benishek, elected in 2010, face Democrat Gary McDowell. A September poll from Public Policy Polling finds McDowell 44 percent to 42 percent. Benishek will survive the challenge and get reeleted.

Michigan 11: This is an open seat race between Republican Kerry Bentivolio and Democrat Syed Taj. This one is expected to go Republican, after the suprise resignation of Congressman Thaddeus McCotter set up this contest, in what is generally a Republican leaning district.

Minnesota 8: Incumbent Republican Chip Cravaack seeks reelection against Democrat Rick Nolan in a district that has been gradually growing more Republican. This trend will continue and Cravaack will hold on to this seat.

North Carolina 7: Incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre seeks reelection against Republican challenger David Rouzer. In a close election incumbency makes a difference, this seat will go for the Democrats.

New Hampshire 1: Incumbent Republican Frank Guinta faces a challenge from former Democrat Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, who he defeated in a close race in 2010. Guinta has done everything he needs to do to win a close district and will be reelected this year.

Nevada 4: This is a newly created seat, should go Republican with Danny Tarkanian, the son of the well-known UNLV basketball coach.

New York  -  Randy Altschuler for Congress

New York 1: This race features incumbent Democrat Tim Bishop running against Republican Randy Altschuler. This race leans Republican.

New York 21: Democrat incumbent Bill Owens, who defeated conservative Doug Hoffmany promising to oppose ObamaCare then went to Congress and voted for it. Republican challenger Matt Doneny will score the upset and win this race.

New York 27: Incumbent Democrats Kathy Hochul faces Republican challenger Chris Collins. Collins could win this one in a close race.

Ohio 6: This race is between incumbent Republican Bill Johnson and Democrat challenger Charlie Wilson. This race leans Republican.

Ohio 16: This is an open seat race between Democrat Betty Sutton and Republican Jim Renacci. Ohio will narrowly go Republican for Romney and that might just tip the balance in this race to the Republican nominee Renacci.

Pennsylvania 12: This race features incumbent Democrat Mark Critz, who was elected in a close race in 2010, running against Republican Keith Rothfus. Although it will be a close race, the Democrat incumbent will be reelected.

Texas 23: Incumbent Republican Francisco “Quico” Canseco is seeking reelection against Democrat Pete Gallego. This is a Republican-leaning district where the incumbent will hold on to his seat in a close election.

Utah  -  Mia Love for Congress

Utah 4: In this race, incumbent liberal Democrat Jim Matheson faces a strong challenge from Satatoga Springs Mayor and Republican nominee Mia Love. The most recent poll listed by RCP shows Love winning by six percent and the momentum seems to be going that way in this race. Republican Love will win this race.

Without these 33 close races, the score was 226 Republicans to 176 Democrats. Of these 33, Republicans are expected to win 25 and Democrats will win only eight. That brings the final tally to 251 Republicans and 184 Democrats in the next Congress. If this holds true on election day, it will be a gain of eight seats for Republicans.
(The Examiner)

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