"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

New England may save the Democrat Senate

Republican Weakness  -  New England may keep the US Senate in Democrat hands
  • The GOP in the region is so weak that the states of Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts,Vermont and Connecticut do not send a single Republican House member to Washington.
  • Republicans could lose the Senate seats of Maine and Massachusetts.
  • Democratic control of the Senate means repealing Obamacare is dead in the water.

New England was once the heart of Republican Party strength.  Now the GOP nominee from Massachusetts cannot carry his own state in a national election.

For all the talk about the importance of Ohio no one mentions Massachusetts and Romney.  If Romney wins it will be the first time since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 that an incoming President failed to carry his own state.

To save Socialist Obamacare the Democrats are counting on GOP weakness in New England to help them pick up Republican-held Senate seats in New England and construct a barrier against losses in Nebraska and elsewhere that could erase their majority.

In Senate math, the loss of two seats in New England complicates the GOP calculation for majority control. Republicans would have to gain a net of six seats while holding suddenly uncertain Indiana, or a net of five seats if Romney wins the presidency.

Democrats currently have the edge 53-47, including two independents who caucus with the party reports the Washington Times.

Scott Brown for Senate  -  "Growing Up"

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has stopped spending money in Maine, where former Gov. Angus King, an independent, leads in the polls and is seen as likely to side with Democrats if he wins.

In Massachusetts, Republican Sen. Scott Brown is suddenly considered the underdog against Elizabeth Warren as the state is poised to easily back President Obama over former Gov. Mitt Romney for president.

Republican hopes of swiping the seat in Connecticut are fading. Democratic Rep. Christopher S. Murphy has steadied his campaign against former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, who spent $50 million on an unsuccessful bid in 2010 and $42.6 million and counting this year.  McMahon has had to fight the state’s Democratic tilt which has undercut the GOP candidate’s prospects.

Massachusetts Senate
A 47%  -  47% tie

A new Boston Globe poll shows the race between Senator Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren in a dead heat, with ample opportunity for both candidates to win the nation’s most expensive Senate race.

The survey indicates Brown holds a razor-thin 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Warren among likely voters, well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Brown’s lead evaporates, with 47 percent for each candidate, when voters who are undecided are asked which candidate they are leaning toward. (Boston Globe)

Colonel Scott Brown
(R - Massachusetts)

For years, Massachusetts was one of the most solidly Republican states in the nation. From the founding of the Republican Party through 1928, the state voted for only a single Democrat, in 1912, when the Progressive wing of the Republican Party split off to form a short-lived third party.

But as time passed and more and more Irish and other minorities moved to Boston, the Democrats' strength grew. By the late 1800s Boston was a mostly Democratic city, by the 1930s the state was Democratic in national elections, and by the 1960s it was donkeys all the way down.

Today the Republican Party is now virtually extinct in the state legislature, and the state hasn't sent a Republican to the House of Representatives since 1996. But in January 2010 the political world was shocked when an obscure state senator defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley in a special election to claim Ted Kennedy's seat by a five-point margin. Coakley won the solidly liberal western portion of the state and Boston, but it wasn't enough to offset Scott Brown's margins in the suburbs.

Rhode Island House of Representatives
The weakness of the GOP in much of New England is shown in the lower house of the Rhode Island legislature.  There are only nine Republicans out of 75 members.

RI HR diagram.png
Political groupsDemocratic Party (65)
Republican Party(9)
Libertarian Party (1)

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