The Coming GOP Wave
- The wave is coming and a lot of Dems are going to be sucked down..
- Based on past elections, back in January I predicted that the GOP would pick up 20 House seats and 5 Senate seats. I still hold to the 20, but I suspect the Senate GOP pick-ups might go as high as 8 seats.
In New York's 21st congressional district, Republican Elise Stefanik is leading Democrat Aaron Woolf 46 percent to 33 percent, according to a new poll released by Siena College Thursday evening. Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello garners 10 percent of the vote, and 11 percent remain undecided.
The race for the 21st district has been rated a "toss-up" by the Cook Political report. Incumbent Democrat Bill Owens, who won the seat narrowly in 2010 and 2012, announced his retirement earlier this year.
"Where we stand right now is that Stefanik has a considerable lead - not an 'un-overcomeable' lead, but a considerable, 13 point lead," said Siena Research Institute pollster Steven Greenberg.
Not only does the poll show who's ahead and who's trailing, it paints a picture of an area deeply unhappy with the direction of the country, and with our political leadership at both the federal and state level.
Jobs are by far the most important issue, with Social Security and Medicare also a significant concern, as is health care and taxes.
Perhaps most striking is the level of unhappiness in the responses. 69 percent of the people polled said the country is on the wrong track, and only 22 percent said it's going in the right direction. As you might expect, the vast majority of Republicans felt that way, but they were joined by a large majority of independents, and a smaller majority of Democrats.
President Obama fares poorly, rated unfavorably by 60 percent of voters, as does the House of Representatives, rated unfavorably by about the same amount.
|US House election, 2012: New York District 21|
|Working Families||Bill Owens||8,775||%|
|Total||Bill Owens (incumbent)||126,631||50.2%|
|New York's 21st Congressional District|