The Federalist: The 2014 Election Projection

Friday, January 3, 2014

The 2014 Election Projection - The Six Year Itch

When an election is in doubt, go to war.
Uncle Sam poster with Woodrow Wilson,
General Pershing & Admiral Sims (1918).

Mid-Terms Are Only 10 Months Away

The "Six Year Itch" is usually a disaster for

the party in the White House.

By Gary;

Elections are a snapshot of America at a single moment in time.

"Vital" issues that excited great passions with the public are often completely forgotten in a matter of months.

The six year mark of a President and/or his party's control of the White House usually sees major changes in Congress.

Presidents and TV shows are very much alike. Both start off as new and exciting. But after a few years their "act" starts to wear thin and people get restless.

In the case of Presidents it is the "six year itch" mid-term elections where voters can take out their frustrations on the party in power.

Below are ten six year itch elections in the last 100 years. Here is the average of seats lost by the party holding the White House.

-30 House seats lost on average
-5 Senate seats lost

It is really hard to see the GOP picking up 30 more seats in the House. Time will tell if a voter revolt against Obamacare will pack that kind of punch. But a 5 seat gain in the Senate is very reachable . . . unless the GOP nominates more witches or retards who support "legitimate rape".

My 2014 Projection - To stay on the conservative side, I say there will be 20 seat GOP gain in the House and 5 seats in the Senate.

Beware of Marxism

The December Venezuelan elections should be a wake-up call for the non-Marxists in the United States.

In local elections the Communist PSUV and allies won 49.24% (5,111,336) of the vote nationally, versus 42.72% (4,435,097) of the vote to the anti-Communist MUD alliance.

This Communist win is in the face of 56% inflation and an economy imploding by the hour. The insane call of Marxism and the stealing of other people's money is so powerful that millions of mouth-breathing voters will stand up for Communism no matter what.

Civil Rights in the 1918 Mid-Term Elections
Every election sees major issues that influence the voters. In 1918 Democrat Woodrow Wilson cracked down on freedom of speech during World War One, he put Presidential candidate Eugene Debs into prison, and imprisoned and tortured protesters in the women's suffrage movement.

Wilson

1918
-22 Democrat House seats lost
-5 Demo Senate seats lost

Major Issues
America fighting in World War I
The Sedition Act of 1918.
Recession of 1918.

Coolidge

1926
-9 GOP House seats lost
-7 GOP Senate seats lost

Major Issues
No major pressing issues amid growing prosperity,
but even so the "six year itch" kicked in with GOP
seats lost.

FDR Undermines the Constitution
In a direct attack on the Constitution FDR tried to pack the Supreme Court
with New Deal Leftists who would obey his commands. The voters
dealt the Democrats a major setback ending New Deal legislation.

FDR

1938
-72 Democrat House seats lost
-6 Democrat Senate seats lost

Major Issues
The Recession of 1937
Roosevelt's "Court-packing" plan
Overreach of FDR's New Deal.

Truman

1950
-28 Democrat House seats lost
-5 Democrat Senate seats lost

Major Issues
Korean War
Escalation of the Cold War
Soviet espionage inside the U.S.

Ike

1958
-48 GOP House seats lost
-12 GOP Senate seats lost

Major Issues
The Recession of 1958.
Soviet launch of Sputnik and Cold War politics.

LBJ

1966
-47 Democrat House seats lost
-3 Democrat Senate seats lost

Major Issues
The Vietnam War
Civil Rights and the Great Society programs.
Race riots exploded in cities across the country.

Dipshit

1974
-48 GOP House seats lost
-4 GOP Senate seats lost

Major Issues
Recession of 1973 - 1975.
Inflation
Watergate Scandal
A voter rejection of 6 years of Nixon-Ford rule.

Reagan

1986
-5 GOP House seats lost
-8 GOP Senate seats lost

Major Issues
The Savings and Loan Crisis.
Immigration Reform and Control Act in 1986.

Bill Clinton It depends on what the meaning of the word is is

Clinton

1998
+5 Democrats gain five House seats. GOP keeps control.
0 Zero change in Senate seats. GOP keeps control.

Major Issues
The Monica Lewinsky scandal.
Clinton presided over a booming economy resulting
in a gain for Democrats in the House, but voters keep
the GOP in control of Congress as a rejection of Democrats.

Bush

2006
-30 GOP House seats lost.
-6 GOP Senate seats lost.

Major Issues
Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Growth in Big Government spending and debt.
Patriot Act warrantless surveillance programs.

What will the 2014 election bring?
I project a 20 seat gain for the GOP in the House and a 5 seat gain in the Senate.

No comments:

Thomas Pinckney, Federalist

Commissioned as captain in the 1st South Carolina Regiment of the Continental Army. After seeing much action, he became an aide-de-camp to General Horatio Gates. He was captured by the British at the disastrous Battle of Camden in 1780. After recovering from his wounds, he was released in a prisoner exchange. In 1781 he fought under Lafayette in Virginia. Appointed by President George Washington to be the U.S. minister to Great Britain served as Envoy Extraordinary to Spain. The Federalist Party made him a candidate in the 1796 presidential election as the intended running-mate of John Adams. Served as Congressman and Governor of South Carolina. Served as a major general in the Army during the War of 1812.

Henry Lee III, Federalist

Major General "Light-Horse Harry" Lee fought at the battles of Paulus Hook, Guilford Court House, Eutaw Springs, Yorktown and the Whiskey Rebellion. Federalist Congressman from Virginia, Governor of Virginia. Father of Robert E. Lee. In 1812 Lee was attacked by a Jeffersonian mob of Democratic-Republicans while defending a Federalist newspaper from attack. Lee and the other Federalists were beaten and tortured by the mob over the next three hours. Lee was left partially blinded after hot wax was poured into his eyes. The men were left for dead. All were severely injured, and one Federalist, General James Lingan, died.

Frederick Frelinghuysen, Federalist

In the War of Independence he served in the New Jersey militia as an artillery captain, seeing action at Trenton and Monmouth. Attained the rank of colonel. Member of the Continental Congress. Served in the New Jersey General Assembly. Member of the New Jersey convention that ratified the United States Constitution in 1787. President George Washington appointed him as brigadier general in the United States Army for the 1790 campaign against the western Indians. Commissioned major general in the New Jersey militia in 1794, during the Whiskey Rebellion. Elected to the United States Senate.

Stephen Van Rensselaer, Federalist

Van Rensselaer served in the New York Assembly and Senate. He served as the Federalist Lt. Governor under John Jay. In 1786, Van Rensselaer was made a major of the militia. As a Major General in the War of 1812 he led an army in an invasion of Canada and fought at the Battle of Queenston Heights. In 1813 Van Rensselaer was the Federalist candidate for Governor of New York earning 48% of the vote. A shift of only 1,800 votes would have made him Governor. In 1822 he was elected to Congress as a Federalist serving until 1829.

WILLIAM PATERSON, Federalist

James Hillhouse, Federalist

Hillhouse served as captain in Governor's Foot Guards in the Revolutionary War. He was a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives, Congressman from Connecticut at-large, 1791–96, and a Federalist Party U. S. Senator from Connecticut, 1796–1810. He was the anti-slavery leader of the Congress in the early days of the Republic. After the Louisiana Purchase of 1803, Hillhouse fought to bar the importation of slaves into the Louisiana Territory. "I consider slavery as a serious evil," he proclaimed, "and wish to check it wherever I have authority." Two of Hillhouse's amendments restricting slavery passed the Congress and were signed into law.

Oliver Ellsworth, Federalist

In 1777 he was chosen as one of Connecticut's representatives in the Continental Congress. Served at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia as a delegate from Connecticut. On June 20, 1787 he proposed the use of the name the United States to identify the nation under the authority of the Constitution. United States Senator from Connecticut. Ellsworth was the principal exponent in the Senate of Alexander Hamilton's economic program. In 1796 Ellsworth was appointed by President George Washington to be Chief Justice of the United States. Served as United States Envoy Extraordinary to the Court of France. Ellsworth was a candidate in the 1796 United States Presidential election, receiving eleven votes in the electoral college.

Robert Goodloe Harper, Federalist

At the age of fifteen, Harper joined a volunteer corps of Cavalry and served in the American Revolutionary Army. Harper was elected as a Federalist Congressman from South Carolina (1795 - 1801). In 1798 at a dinner in Philadelphia honoring John Marshall, a group of U.S. Congressmen were discussing a recent demand made by the government of France. French vessels had been plundering US ships in a piratical manner. French foreign minister Talleyrand said the attacks would be stopped if the US paid him $250,000 and gave France 50,000 pounds sterling and a $100 million loan. As toasts were made, Harper sent his own defiant reply to the French with this toast: “Millions for defense but not one cent for tribute.” Harper served in the War of 1812, attaining the rank of major general. He moved to Maryland and was elected as a Federalist to the US Senate. He was an unsuccessful Federalist candidate for Vice President in the 1816 election. He also received one electoral vote for Vice President in the 1820 election.

Jacob Read, Federalist

Alexander Contee Hanson, Federalist

Member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Editor of the "Federal Republican", a Federalist Party newspaper in Baltimore. Four days after the beginning of the War of 1812 a mob of pro-war Democrat-Republicans destroyed his newspaper office. The paper moved to another building where Hanson was joined by a group of armed allies. When that building was besieged by another mob, Hanson and his group fired, killing two. Hanson and his group surrendered to the militia and were escorted to jail. That evening yet another mob stormed the jail. Hanson was beaten and left for dead. Hanson was elected as a Federalist to Congress in 1812 and 1814. In 1816 he was elected as a Federalist to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate until his death in 1819 at the age of 33.

William Bingham, Federalist

As a merchant he brought full loads of munitions & guns for the war. Served as a diplomat for Congress to France. Bingham marshaled the Second Troop of Philadelphia Light Horse. He served in the Continental Congress, 1st Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, State Senator, and US Senator. Federalists agreed to hold preliminary votings at the Bingham Estate before propositions were brought before Congress publicly, thus creating unanimity among party lines. Alexander Hamilton sought Bingham as his mentor in managing taxes, tariffs, and in constructing a national bank.

Ezekiel Whitman, Federalist

Whitman practiced law in New Gloucester, Maine and in Portland, Maine (both communities a district of Massachusetts until 1820). In 1808 Whitman was elected as a Federalist Congressman from Massachusetts and served one term. In 1816 he was again elected as a Federalist to the US House serving from 1817 to 1821. In 1819 he was a delegate to the convention that prepared the constitution which led to Maine's statehood. In 1820 he was elected as a Federalist Congressman from the new state of Maine serving until 1822. Chief Justice of the Maine Supreme Court from 1841 to 1848.

David Cobb, Federalist

Cobb studied medicine in Boston and practiced in Taunton, Massachusetts. He was a member of the Massachusetts Provincial Congress in 1775; lieutenant colonel of Jackson’s regiment in 1777 and 1778, serving in Rhode Island and New Jersey; was aide-de-camp on the staff of General George Washington; appointed major general of militia in 1786. Fought in the New York and New Jersey Campaign, the Battles of Springfield, Monmouth, Rhode Island and Shay's Rebellion. He served the Federalist Party as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, President of the State Senate and Congressman.

Josiah Parker, Federalist

In 1775 Parker enlisted in the Continental Army. He was commissioned a major in the 5th Virginia Regiment in 1776 and became its colonel in 1778. His regiment served in Virginia under General Charles Lee and was transferred to George Washington. The regiment thereafter saw action at the Battles of Trenton, Princeton, Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth and the Siege of Charleston. During Cornwallis's Virginia campaign in 1781, the notorious Colonel Tarleton ransacked his home. He was elected to the First US Congress from Virginia serving for twelve years.

William Stephens Smith, Federalist

Smith married Abigail "Nabby" Adams, the daughter of President John Adams, and so was a brother-in-law of President John Quincy Adams, and an uncle of Charles Francis Adams. Served in the Revolutionary Army as aide-de-camp to General John Sullivan. Fought in the Battle of Long Island, was wounded at Harlem Heights, Battle of White Plains, was promoted to lieutenant colonel at the Battle of Trenton, fought at the Battle of Monmouth and Newport. He was on the staff of General Lafayette, became an adjutant in the Corps of Light Infantry, then transferred to the staff of George Washington. Elected as a Federalist Congressman from New York.

Oliver Wolcott, Jr., Federalist

John Rutledge, Jr., Federalist

Rutledge served as Congressman from South Carolina. A passionate Federalist, he supported Aaron Burr against Jefferson, founding the Charleston Courier (predecessor of the Post and Courier) to support his causes. Joining the South Carolina Militia in 1799, Rutledge served as commander of the Twenty-eighth Regiment in the War of 1812. He subsequently commanded the Seventh Brigade from 1816 until his death. Rutledge's life was fraught with controversy. Catching his wife (mother to his nine children) in a "clandestine visit" with Dr. Horace Senter, Rutledge challenged him to a duel, fatally wounding the doctor.

John Sergeant, Federalist

Member of the Pennsylvania state house of representatives 1808-1810; elected as a Federalist to Congress and served from 1815, to 1823. Sergeant was a strong backer of Henry Clay's American System and the Second Bank of the United States, and even traveled to Europe to negotiate loans to the Bank. He was a strong opponent of slavery who voted against the Missouri Compromise. In 1826 he was an envoy to the Panama Congress. Elected to Congress as an Adams candidate 1827 to 1829. Failing re-election he became legal counsel to the Bank of the United States. Sergeant was the Vice Presidential running mate in Henry Clay's campaign on the National Republican ticket in 1832. Elected as a Whig to Congress serving from 1837 to 1841.

John Laurance, Federalist

Philip Barton Key, Federalist

Key had been a Loyalist in the American Revolution. He served in the Maryland Loyalists Battalion as a captain. Key fought with the British Army from 1777 to 1781, until he was captured by the Spanish in Pensacola, Florida with the rest of his battalion. After the war he served as Mayor of Annapolis & member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Appointed a Federal Judge by John Adams. He was a Counsel to Justice Samuel Chase during Chase's Jefferson ordered impeachment show-trial in 1805. Elected as a Federalist to Congress from Maryland (1807 - 1813). Francis Scott Key was his nephew.