The Federalist: Key House Races to Watch This November

Friday, August 8, 2014

Key House Races to Watch This November

A Real Clear Politics summary of interesting House of Representatives races around the country.

UTAH-4:
The First Black GOP Congresswoman?
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This cycle is Mia Love’s second chance at making history. The former Saratoga Springs mayor is a rising GOP star and a top recruit for a party hoping to diversify. In 2012, Love challenged Rep. Jim Matheson, a moderate Democrat who had managed to hold the 4^th District seat even against previous GOP tides. Love gave a much-acclaimed speech at the Tampa convention in 2012, but went on to lose to Matheson that fall by just under 800 votes.

Last year, Love announced she would take on Matheson again. The increasingly favorable GOP climate and the president’s lagging numbers were expected to be helpful, and Matheson -- one of the few Blue Dog Democrats left in Congress -- decided to retire. His impending exit all but ensures a Republican takeover of the seat he has held for 15 years.

Love will face Democratic attorney Doug Owens in November. If she wins -- and the district leans heavily Republican -- Love will become the party’s first African-American woman in Congress.

COLORADO-6:
The Pricey One

Republican Rep. Michael Coffman

This Denver area district is home to one of the most expensive and contested House races of the 2014 cycle. Republican Rep. Michael Coffman is vying for re-election in a district that’s now 20 percent Latino. Coffman has moderated his stances on immigration to fit his constituency, backing a citizenship pathway for the children of undocumented immigrants after previously opposing it.

Coffman won re-election in 2012 by four percentage points. This year, he faces former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, who moved last year to Aurora. In 2010, Romanoff lost a bitter primary battle against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, and is now hoping to make it to Congress through the 6^th District.

President Obama carried the district by five points in 2012, but Republicans have held the seat for three decades. This local race has become a battle of national party messaging. Coffman has equated a vote for his opponent with a vote to make Nancy Pelosi speaker again. Romanoff is painting Coffman as part of the problem with gridlock and spending in Washington.

The two candidates have raised nearly $3.5 million each. Coffman has spent $1 million so far, and Romanoff $775,000. The race is considered a tossup heading into Election Day, and is a top target for Democrats hoping to pick up seats in a difficult cycle.

Colorado 6th Congressional District 2012
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Coffman (Incumbent)	163,938	47.81%
	Democratic	Joe Miklosi	156,937	45.77%
	Not Affiliated	Kathy Polhemus	13,442	3.92%
	Libertarian	Patrick E. Provost	8,597	2.51%
Totals			342,914	100.0%

GEORGIA-12:
The Last of the Deep South White Democrats
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That title has become a familiar one for John Barrow. The five-term congressman is the only remaining white Democrat in the Deep South -- a reflection of the region’s ideological realignment. Southern white Democrats were a robust and powerful group in Congress for most of this country’s history. Now they are on the brink of extinction.

Barrow is the last one standing in the House. His voting record helps explain why. He opposed the Affordable Care Act in 2009, a bill that later doomed many of his Blue Dog colleagues, and also voted against the Waxman-Markey clean energy bill know as “Cap and Trade.”

Barrow is a throwback on “culture war” issues, too. In 2011, he voted to uphold the Defense of Marriage Act. And last cycle, he ran a campaign ad in which he held his grandfather’s Smith & Wesson handgun and his father’s rifle to tout an endorsement from the NRA. “These are my guns now,” he says in the ad. “And ain’t nobody going to take them away.”

That 2012 race was supposed to bring about Barrow’s defeat. But he survived a Republican challenge that year in the Augusta-area district by nearly eight points, even as Mitt Romney won it by 12. That year, he faced an expensive primary challenge from a black state senator who opposed Barrow’s position on health care, a sign of the demographic and ideological shifts in the area.

This cycle figures to be another difficult one for Barrow, given the GOP-favored climate. His opponent is Republican businessman Rick Allen, who will paint the incumbent as a longtime professional politician who contributes to Washington gridlock. Republicans are already hitting Barrow for opposing a full repeal of the health care law, even though he opposed its original passage.

Barrow’s pitch is one of bipartisanship, similar to other hard-pressed Democrats running in districts carried in 2012 by Mitt Romney.

NEW MEXICO-2:
The Conservative Latino Whisperer

If a white, conservative Republican representing a district in a state on the beleaguered U.S.-Mexico border -- in which more than half of the population is Latino -- sounds like a rare breed in Congress, well, it is. And Steve Pearce is often a target for Democrats hoping to pick up seats. But Pearce has won the district, which is basically made up of the southern half of New Mexico, five times, taking over 40 percent of the Latino vote -- more than what Latina Republican Gov. Susanna Martina has taken and doubling Mitt Romney’s share.

Pearce is unabashedly conservative, even on immigration policy. He voted against the DREAM Act and opposes Obamacare. He is against abortion rights and gay marriage. He has opposed critical fiscal deals in Congress and has even opposed John Boehner as House speaker. And he supports drug tests for those on welfare. But his constituent service appears to make the difference with voters in his district, as detailed last year by the Wall Street Journal.

He is the only Republican in the New Mexico congressional delegation -- and the only Republican to represent a border district in Congress. In 2012, Pearce won by 19 points. And both John McCain and Mitt Romney carried the district in the past two presidential cycles.

Still, given its growing Hispanic population, Democrats see this seat as one they can flip -- if not now, then eventually. Eddy County Commissioner Roxanne Lara is challenging Pearce.

Without Pearce, the Democrats chances in this district would look good. When Pearce left the House to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008, a Democrat succeeded him. Pearce lost to now-Sen. Tom Udall by a wide margin. But he came back for his old House seat in 2010 and beat the Democrat by 10 points, taking 42 percent of the Latino vote. If Pearce wins again and continues his margins among Latino voters, his tenure could serve as a lesson for Republicans trying to reach this rapidly growing demographic group.

CALIFORNIA-52:
An Openly Gay Republican Congressman?
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Democratic Rep. Scott Peters is facing a tough challenge from GOP San Diego businessman Carl DeMaio in California’s 52^nd Congressional District. The two share some similarities: Both candidates previously served on the San Diego City Council. Both men have also stressed their moderate credentials in the swing district, while describing their opponent as out of touch with constituents' needs.

If elected, DeMaio would become the third openly gay Republican to serve in Congress and the first to feature a same-sex partner in his campaign literature.

(Actually, DeMaio could become one of three openly gay Republicans in Congress next year. Former Massachusetts state Sen. Richard Tisei, who is also pro-abortion rights, is challenging Democrat John Tierney in the Bay State’s 6th Congressional District for the second time in two years. Just one percentage point separated Tisei from Tierney in the Gloucester-area district last cycle.

A non-presidential year in this blue state could benefit Tisei. And in New Hampshire, former businesses school dean Dan Innis is running a long shot campaign for the GOP nomination to challenge Shea-Porter in New Hampshire’s 1st District. Like Tisei, Innis is married.)
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DeMaio has also proven to be a fundraising powerhouse, taking in more than $600,000 in the second quarter of 2014. Peters, however, is a proven candidate who defeated Rep. Brian Bilbray in 2012, the same year DeMaio lost his bid for San Diego mayor. The 52^nd District also leans slightly Democratic, helping Peters. Public polling on the race is sparse, but a June survey showed DeMaio leading by seven percentage points.

Read more: Real Clear Politics.com .

Carl DeMaio: A New Generation Republican
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Thomas Pinckney, Federalist

Commissioned as captain in the 1st South Carolina Regiment of the Continental Army. After seeing much action, he became an aide-de-camp to General Horatio Gates. He was captured by the British at the disastrous Battle of Camden in 1780. After recovering from his wounds, he was released in a prisoner exchange. In 1781 he fought under Lafayette in Virginia. Appointed by President George Washington to be the U.S. minister to Great Britain served as Envoy Extraordinary to Spain. The Federalist Party made him a candidate in the 1796 presidential election as the intended running-mate of John Adams. Served as Congressman and Governor of South Carolina. Served as a major general in the Army during the War of 1812.

Henry Lee III, Federalist

Major General "Light-Horse Harry" Lee fought at the battles of Paulus Hook, Guilford Court House, Eutaw Springs, Yorktown and the Whiskey Rebellion. Federalist Congressman from Virginia, Governor of Virginia. Father of Robert E. Lee. In 1812 Lee was attacked by a Jeffersonian mob of Democratic-Republicans while defending a Federalist newspaper from attack. Lee and the other Federalists were beaten and tortured by the mob over the next three hours. Lee was left partially blinded after hot wax was poured into his eyes. The men were left for dead. All were severely injured, and one Federalist, General James Lingan, died.

Frederick Frelinghuysen, Federalist

In the War of Independence he served in the New Jersey militia as an artillery captain, seeing action at Trenton and Monmouth. Attained the rank of colonel. Member of the Continental Congress. Served in the New Jersey General Assembly. Member of the New Jersey convention that ratified the United States Constitution in 1787. President George Washington appointed him as brigadier general in the United States Army for the 1790 campaign against the western Indians. Commissioned major general in the New Jersey militia in 1794, during the Whiskey Rebellion. Elected to the United States Senate.

Stephen Van Rensselaer, Federalist

Van Rensselaer served in the New York Assembly and Senate. He served as the Federalist Lt. Governor under John Jay. In 1786, Van Rensselaer was made a major of the militia. As a Major General in the War of 1812 he led an army in an invasion of Canada and fought at the Battle of Queenston Heights. In 1813 Van Rensselaer was the Federalist candidate for Governor of New York earning 48% of the vote. A shift of only 1,800 votes would have made him Governor. In 1822 he was elected to Congress as a Federalist serving until 1829.

WILLIAM PATERSON, Federalist

James Hillhouse, Federalist

Hillhouse served as captain in Governor's Foot Guards in the Revolutionary War. He was a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives, Congressman from Connecticut at-large, 1791–96, and a Federalist Party U. S. Senator from Connecticut, 1796–1810. He was the anti-slavery leader of the Congress in the early days of the Republic. After the Louisiana Purchase of 1803, Hillhouse fought to bar the importation of slaves into the Louisiana Territory. "I consider slavery as a serious evil," he proclaimed, "and wish to check it wherever I have authority." Two of Hillhouse's amendments restricting slavery passed the Congress and were signed into law.

Oliver Ellsworth, Federalist

In 1777 he was chosen as one of Connecticut's representatives in the Continental Congress. Served at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia as a delegate from Connecticut. On June 20, 1787 he proposed the use of the name the United States to identify the nation under the authority of the Constitution. United States Senator from Connecticut. Ellsworth was the principal exponent in the Senate of Alexander Hamilton's economic program. In 1796 Ellsworth was appointed by President George Washington to be Chief Justice of the United States. Served as United States Envoy Extraordinary to the Court of France. Ellsworth was a candidate in the 1796 United States Presidential election, receiving eleven votes in the electoral college.

Robert Goodloe Harper, Federalist

At the age of fifteen, Harper joined a volunteer corps of Cavalry and served in the American Revolutionary Army. Harper was elected as a Federalist Congressman from South Carolina (1795 - 1801). In 1798 at a dinner in Philadelphia honoring John Marshall, a group of U.S. Congressmen were discussing a recent demand made by the government of France. French vessels had been plundering US ships in a piratical manner. French foreign minister Talleyrand said the attacks would be stopped if the US paid him $250,000 and gave France 50,000 pounds sterling and a $100 million loan. As toasts were made, Harper sent his own defiant reply to the French with this toast: “Millions for defense but not one cent for tribute.” Harper served in the War of 1812, attaining the rank of major general. He moved to Maryland and was elected as a Federalist to the US Senate. He was an unsuccessful Federalist candidate for Vice President in the 1816 election. He also received one electoral vote for Vice President in the 1820 election.

Jacob Read, Federalist

Alexander Contee Hanson, Federalist

Member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Editor of the "Federal Republican", a Federalist Party newspaper in Baltimore. Four days after the beginning of the War of 1812 a mob of pro-war Democrat-Republicans destroyed his newspaper office. The paper moved to another building where Hanson was joined by a group of armed allies. When that building was besieged by another mob, Hanson and his group fired, killing two. Hanson and his group surrendered to the militia and were escorted to jail. That evening yet another mob stormed the jail. Hanson was beaten and left for dead. Hanson was elected as a Federalist to Congress in 1812 and 1814. In 1816 he was elected as a Federalist to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate until his death in 1819 at the age of 33.

William Bingham, Federalist

As a merchant he brought full loads of munitions & guns for the war. Served as a diplomat for Congress to France. Bingham marshaled the Second Troop of Philadelphia Light Horse. He served in the Continental Congress, 1st Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, State Senator, and US Senator. Federalists agreed to hold preliminary votings at the Bingham Estate before propositions were brought before Congress publicly, thus creating unanimity among party lines. Alexander Hamilton sought Bingham as his mentor in managing taxes, tariffs, and in constructing a national bank.

Ezekiel Whitman, Federalist

Whitman practiced law in New Gloucester, Maine and in Portland, Maine (both communities a district of Massachusetts until 1820). In 1808 Whitman was elected as a Federalist Congressman from Massachusetts and served one term. In 1816 he was again elected as a Federalist to the US House serving from 1817 to 1821. In 1819 he was a delegate to the convention that prepared the constitution which led to Maine's statehood. In 1820 he was elected as a Federalist Congressman from the new state of Maine serving until 1822. Chief Justice of the Maine Supreme Court from 1841 to 1848.

David Cobb, Federalist

Cobb studied medicine in Boston and practiced in Taunton, Massachusetts. He was a member of the Massachusetts Provincial Congress in 1775; lieutenant colonel of Jackson’s regiment in 1777 and 1778, serving in Rhode Island and New Jersey; was aide-de-camp on the staff of General George Washington; appointed major general of militia in 1786. Fought in the New York and New Jersey Campaign, the Battles of Springfield, Monmouth, Rhode Island and Shay's Rebellion. He served the Federalist Party as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, President of the State Senate and Congressman.

Josiah Parker, Federalist

In 1775 Parker enlisted in the Continental Army. He was commissioned a major in the 5th Virginia Regiment in 1776 and became its colonel in 1778. His regiment served in Virginia under General Charles Lee and was transferred to George Washington. The regiment thereafter saw action at the Battles of Trenton, Princeton, Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth and the Siege of Charleston. During Cornwallis's Virginia campaign in 1781, the notorious Colonel Tarleton ransacked his home. He was elected to the First US Congress from Virginia serving for twelve years.

William Stephens Smith, Federalist

Smith married Abigail "Nabby" Adams, the daughter of President John Adams, and so was a brother-in-law of President John Quincy Adams, and an uncle of Charles Francis Adams. Served in the Revolutionary Army as aide-de-camp to General John Sullivan. Fought in the Battle of Long Island, was wounded at Harlem Heights, Battle of White Plains, was promoted to lieutenant colonel at the Battle of Trenton, fought at the Battle of Monmouth and Newport. He was on the staff of General Lafayette, became an adjutant in the Corps of Light Infantry, then transferred to the staff of George Washington. Elected as a Federalist Congressman from New York.

Oliver Wolcott, Jr., Federalist

John Rutledge, Jr., Federalist

Rutledge served as Congressman from South Carolina. A passionate Federalist, he supported Aaron Burr against Jefferson, founding the Charleston Courier (predecessor of the Post and Courier) to support his causes. Joining the South Carolina Militia in 1799, Rutledge served as commander of the Twenty-eighth Regiment in the War of 1812. He subsequently commanded the Seventh Brigade from 1816 until his death. Rutledge's life was fraught with controversy. Catching his wife (mother to his nine children) in a "clandestine visit" with Dr. Horace Senter, Rutledge challenged him to a duel, fatally wounding the doctor.

John Sergeant, Federalist

Member of the Pennsylvania state house of representatives 1808-1810; elected as a Federalist to Congress and served from 1815, to 1823. Sergeant was a strong backer of Henry Clay's American System and the Second Bank of the United States, and even traveled to Europe to negotiate loans to the Bank. He was a strong opponent of slavery who voted against the Missouri Compromise. In 1826 he was an envoy to the Panama Congress. Elected to Congress as an Adams candidate 1827 to 1829. Failing re-election he became legal counsel to the Bank of the United States. Sergeant was the Vice Presidential running mate in Henry Clay's campaign on the National Republican ticket in 1832. Elected as a Whig to Congress serving from 1837 to 1841.

John Laurance, Federalist

Philip Barton Key, Federalist

Key had been a Loyalist in the American Revolution. He served in the Maryland Loyalists Battalion as a captain. Key fought with the British Army from 1777 to 1781, until he was captured by the Spanish in Pensacola, Florida with the rest of his battalion. After the war he served as Mayor of Annapolis & member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Appointed a Federal Judge by John Adams. He was a Counsel to Justice Samuel Chase during Chase's Jefferson ordered impeachment show-trial in 1805. Elected as a Federalist to Congress from Maryland (1807 - 1813). Francis Scott Key was his nephew.