"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Top House Seats to Change Hands in 2014 - Part 3

It's Marx vs. Conservatism
If the Democrats win the House plan on the US becoming
a one-party People's Republic like Venezuela

Democrats look very unlikely to pick up the 17 seats they would need to retake the House majority, and they could lose seats. 

At the six year mark for an incumbent President the opposition party has picked up 30 seats on average in the House.  From my viewpoint that projection is too high for 2014.  I think a 20 seat GOP pick up in closer.

Here are ten congressional districts most likely to flip from one party to the other this November according to the National Journal.

See our previous stories for districts one to ten and for districts 11 to 20.

Here are districts 21 to 30 likely to flip.

21. Illinois-12—Rep. Bill Enyart (D) is running for reelection
Culturally, this downstate seat—bordered by Kentucky to the south and Missouri to the west—looks a lot like the type of Democratic district Republicans have flat-out assimilated, Borg-like, over the past few years, though Democrats still maintain a slight generic edge here. Enyart won his freshman term more easily than Republicans were expecting, though they think state Rep. Mike Bost could give him a run for his money.

22. Georgia-12—Rep. John Barrow (D) is running for reelection
Barrow ran a flawless 2012 campaign against a flawed opponent—and he still won with just under 54 percent. Such is life for the last remaining House Democrat in the Deep South. Romney won the seat by 12 percentage points, and Barrow's ceiling is too low for comfort no matter how much even House GOP strategists grudgingly praise his political survival instincts. Republican Rick Allen's deep pockets could play a role here.

GOP Congressman David Valadao won in a nearly impossible
deep blue California district.
Valadao for Congress.com

23. California-21—Rep. David Valadao (R) is running for reelection
By presidential performance, this is the second-bluest seat held by a House Republican, so the relatively untested Valadao has to look over his shoulder a bit. But those numbers also obscure some major issues for Democrats in the Central Valley. Former Senate staffer Amanda Renteria has Democrats excited and may prove to be a strong campaigner, but her party just lost a 2013 state Senate special election in a district that largely overlapped with the 21st.

24. New York-19—Rep. Chris Gibson (R) is running for reelection
Gibson has proven a great electoral fit for the district, even as Obama carried the Hudson Valley seat in 2012, but investor Sean Eldridge (who is married to Facebook cofounder Chris Hughes) brings connections and cash to bear on the race, which has Republicans nervous. They've already begun savaging Eldridge as a carpetbagger out of touch with the median voter, while preemptively wincing at what might happen in an expensive race. Democrats tried and failed in 2012 to convince area voters that they should support a Democrat for Congress if they were going to support Obama; that will an important page in the playbook again in 2014.

U.S. Army Colonel Joe Heck won his Las Vegas, Nevada seat in 2010 by a narrow margin.  He was re-elected in 2012 with only 50.4% of the vote.  Without patriots like Colonel Heck winning is tough seats the Marxists would have total control of our government.
Heck 4 Nevada.com 

Nevada's 3rd congressional district election, 2010
RepublicanJoe Heck128,91648.13%
DemocraticDina Titus (inc.)127,16847.47%
IndependentBarri Michaels6,4732.42%
LibertarianJoseph P. Silvestri4,0261.50%
Independent AmericanScott David Narter1,2910.48%
Republican gain from Democratic


25. Nevada-03—Rep. Joe Heck (R) is running for reelection
Heck beat back a Democratic challenge in 2012 rather easily considering the seat's narrow lean for Obama, and Democrat Erin Bilbray might be a tougher matchup when all is said and done. The big issue in this race so far has been immigration. Heck has endorsed a pathway to citizenship, but he has opposed the bipartisan Senate bill for comprehensive reform, and the biggest immigration vote he took in 2013 was one to defund Obama's executive Dream Act-style program. Bilbray has had trouble landing punches on the issue, but Heck could be a gauge of how immigration reform affects Republican prospects in diverse districts.

26. Illinois-10—Rep. Brad Schneider (D) is running for reelection
Democrats finally captured this district in 2012, when it was the bluest GOP-held seat in the country, after years of failed efforts. That type of seat often stays put once it finally flips, but former Rep. Bob Dold proved himself to be a reasonable Republican fit there last term and can run against Congress now, instead of as part of it. Illinois Democrats and Florida Republicans may have a similar worry this cycle: Keep an eye out for whether unpopular Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn suppresses enthusiasm for Schneider north of Chicago.

27. Pennsylvania-08—Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) is running for reelection
Fitzpatrick's easy victory last cycle means that Democrats' first-time candidates have to prove they can make the seat competitive, though its another district that split between Obama and a GOP congressman. This is another state where Democrats hope an unpopular governor (Tom Corbett) drags down Republican performance down-ticket.

GOP Rep. Michael Grimm
This former Marine won a New York City
seat by a narrow 52% - 47% margin.
Grimm for Congress
28. New Hampshire-02—Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) is running for reelection
Kuster/span> has only been in politics for a few years, but she has already accumulated a startling record of public gaffes, including grabbing a camera from a tracker, trying to grab the microphone from then-Rep. Charles Bass during a debate in 2012, and, most recently, dismissing a series of aggressive questions at a town-hall meeting. The district is Democratic-leaning—Kuster barely lost in 2010 despite that year's Republican wave—but it is not immune to the nation's political swings, and Kuster may prove to be a liability to herself. A small-sample poll from WMUR last October showed her unfavorability higher than her favorability rating, in contrast to her in-state Democratic colleague Shea-Porter, who represents a less friendly district.

29. New York-11—Rep. Michael Grimm (R) is running for reelection
Democrats' latest challenge to Grimm will be better-funded than their last, thanks to former New York City Councilor Domenic Recchia's connections, and the race looks set to be nastier, too, with Recchia and Grimm already going back and forth raising ethical issues about each other. Recchia is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, but Democrats are betting he can still make a stronger push there even as Grimm argues he's more in tune with the district. This is one of just a handful of districts where Obama improved on his 2008 showing last election, though it's hard to say how much of that might have been a temporary effect of Hurricane Sandy.

30. Texas-23—Rep. Pete Gallego (D) is running for reelection
As with some previous districts, the numbers—including a Romney win here in 2012—dictate that Gallego stay on the watch list. But the NRCC quietly kept recruiting in this vast West Texas district after all three Republican candidates were already running, which sends a frank message about how the GOP views their prospects. Part of the problem: Former Rep. Quico Canseco, the best-known of the three Republican contenders, was savaged by Democratic ads last cycle, with lingering results on public opinion.

For the full story go to The National Journal.

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