"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Can Obama be defeated?

Almost President DeWitt Clinton
In 1812 a change of only 9,827 votes would
have defeated Founding Father and incumbent
President James Madison.

Can Comrade Obama be defeated this November?

  • History shows that being a President simply makes you a giant target for the emotions of the nation.
  • Many incumbent Presidents have been rejected by their own party for re-nomination.
  • Many other incumbent Presidents were defeated at the ballot box.

By Gary;

Members of the Congress are much like rats hiding and operating in a dark basement away from public view.  Rats, in both politics and in your home, can do damage to your health, property and the economy . . . . plus rats (like politicians) have few redeeming features.  The rats in Congress almost always win re-election because they act mostly outside the white hot spotlight of public view.

Presidents are not so lucky.

From the beginning of the Republic, Presidents have been on the receiving end of all the hopes, dreams, fears and hates of the citizens.  As leader, Presidents get the credit or the blame for current events.  Their re-election is far from a foregone conclusion.
General Franklin Pierce
Being a hero of the Mexican War did not
prevent Pierce from becoming a very
unpopular President.  He joined other
Presidents such as Fillmore, Arthur and
Johnson who failed to get the
nomination of their party for a new term.  

Weak Incumbent Presidents  -  Here is the poster boy for a weak incumbent President  -  James Madison.

On paper you had the "prefect" incumbent.  Founding Father of the nation, author of the Constitution, author of the Bill of Rights, former Secretary of State and hand picked successor of Thomas Jefferson.  Madison had the added bonus of an opposition Federalist Party that had been beaten into the ground by Jefferson.

But Madison was viewed as a weak President who had just dragged the nation into the Napoleonic Wars by declaring war on England in the War of 1812.

Along comes former U.S. Senator and current New York City Mayor DeWitt Clinton.  Suddenly the near one-party state created by Jefferson becomes an aggressive two party election.  Clinton joins forces with the Federalist Party making the election of 1812 one of the closest in history.

Clinton's campaign tailored their pamphlets and speeches by region. In the Northeast, Clinton was portrayed as the anti-war candidate. Meanwhile, in the South and West, where there were few people opposed to the war, Clinton ran on the basis of a more vigorous prosecution of the war.  The Federalists nearly doubled their strength in the House and Clinton came within 9,827 votes of winning the White House.

The power of Presidential incumbency is sometimes nothing more than an illusion created by the campaign.  Sometimes the illusion gets them another term by a good margin.  But in other cases people are so angry that incumbents face ultra-close elections such as 1812, 1892, 1916 and 2004.

But nearly half of incumbents are tossed out the White House door either by their party or the voters.

Rejected by their own Party  -  Many Presidents never had the chance to have a close re-election campaign as a "weak" incumbent. They were so hated by their own party that they failed to even get the nomination for another term or they choose to "retire" before getting a knife in the back from their friends and allies
Almost President
Charles Evans Hughes

Another example of the weak incumbent
President. In the 1916 election, a change of
only 1,887 votes in California would have sent
President Woodrow Wilson into retirement.

Presidents who so angered the public that they were rejected by their party include John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson.

Presidents who Lost Re-Election  -  That white hot spotlight of public opinion has not been kind to incumbent Presidents.

The first half of our history saw the defeat of incumbents John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison.

The last century has seen the defeat of incumbents William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.

Can Comrade Obama Win?  -  Our Presidents often think they are Gods, but the public knows better.

Republicans might hate Obama, but in looking at all the elections in our history an incumbent like Obama has the edge.

Twenty Presidents seeking another term who received the nomination of their party have won re-election.  Some have won re-election in landslides such as Andrew Jackson, Grant and Nixon.  Others have won in ultra-narrow contests such as Madison, Wilson and the younger Bush.  But win they did and to the victors belong the spoils.

Ten Presidents who had the backing of their party were defeated in November.

Numbers do not lie.  History shows the incumbent President with a huge advantage.

I fear for this country if Comrade Obama wins re-election.  This Marxist monster can do horrible damage to the nation through a combination of Socialist judicial appointments, un-elected boards and commissions, Presidential edicts and a spineless "opposition" in the Republican Party.  Mitt Romney has his work cut out for him if he is to buck the advantage history gives to Obama.

Tippecanoe and Tyler Too

A Guide for Future American Elections.
The election of 1812 has served as a guide for so many election contests in our history.  A nearly dead opposition party is brought back to life courtesy of either an arrogant incumbent, a grab for power, economic depression and/or an unpopular war.

In 1812 Founding Father James Madison dragged America into the Napoleonic Wars by insisting that Congress declare war on England.  This action split the nation and breathed new life into the Federalist Party.

We talk about swing states electing our Presidents.  But in 1812 the entire election came down to the single state of Pennsylvania.  The Federalist Party nominated for Vice President the Founding Father Jared Ingersoll of Pennsylvania who attended the Constitutional Convention.      

Sometimes it all comes down to one state.
Pennsylvania was the key to the 1812 election.  A change of only 9,827 votes would have thrown the election to the Federalist Party and sent James Madison packing into retirement.

We have seen this pattern repeat itself again and again.  A handful of voters in a key state or a few key states select the President for the entire nation.  The most recent example was in 2000 when George Bush won Florida by less than 1,000 votes.  

No comments: