"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Does Hollywood's "Worst Summer" Mean a New Recession?

"Captain America: The Winter Soldier" made 64% of its 3/4 of a billion 
box office outside of the United States.

The Collapsing American Economy?
The U.S. movie box office is down 20%. 
Are Americans simply out of money?

By Gary;

Are Hollywood movies the canary in the coal mine? And is our economy trending down?

Both Drudge and the Hollywood Reporter are beating the drum of a failed summer box office. A statement that is both true and untrue.

Less than six weeks before Labor Day, hopes for recovery at the North American summer box office have evaporated. The season is expected to finish down 15 to 20 percent compared with 2013, the worst year-over-year decline in three decades.

The Reporter says analysts predict that the full year is facing a deficit of 4 to 5 percent.

For any industry this would be a major hit.

Personally I think we have three factors going on at the same time causing a decline in sales.

1)  I think Americans are running out of money.  Most of our job "growth" (such as it is) has been in part-time lower wages sectors.  One look around and you see an explosion of 99 cent type stores that never existed in meaningful numbers a decade ago.  Also, mid-level restaurants like Red Lobster and Olive Garden are hurting bad.  Competitors are offering Dollar Menus just to get people through the front door.

Movie tickets are becoming a luxury item for many.

2)  We are seeing the birth of the Lazy American.  The often slug-like, Sheeple of America sit mesmerized by their shiny toy phones, texting and mobile/home based technology.  Going to the movies used to be a wonderful social event for friends, family and lovers.  But today millions of "modern" Americans would rather sit in front of small screens at home in their underwear and have pizza delivered.

So sad really.

3)  Finally, Hollywood is not longer Hollywood.

Today the American box office is almost an afterthought.  Far more important in the minds of many studio executives is how a film will play in China and Europe.  In movie after move you find huge percentages of the tickets sold are in the overseas markets.

A loss of jobs  -  As "Hollywood" goes international we have seen a near collapse of movie industry jobs in California.  Many films will have an international cast of actors from Australia, Britain an other nations.  But also the supporting jobs in music, editing, production have also moved offshore.

Transformers: Age of Extinction

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $229,616,681   25.7%
Foreign: $662,600,000   74.3%

Worldwide: $892,216,681 

Transformers is a perfect example of both the decline of traditional "Hollywood" and the massive growth of the film industry around the world. 

With 74.3% of ticket sales overseas, Transformers would be a monster hit without one single ticket being sold in America.

To bottom line it, Hollywood is currently sinking in the U.S., but it is booming around the world.  So let's say good-bye to yet more American jobs as they find homes overseas.


Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $229,329,691   32.7%
Foreign: $471,800,000   67.3%

Worldwide: $701,129,691 

Edge of Tomorrow

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $96,913,580   27.1%
Foreign: $261,300,000   72.9%

Worldwide: $358,213,580 

(Hollywood Reporter)

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