"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Monday, July 11, 2011

Will history defeat Michele Bachmann?

History shows that few nominees of political parties came from the House of Representatives.

Will voters support a member of the House for President?

By Gary;

I am really excited at the Presidential run by Michele Bachmann.  As an all but card carrying member of the Federalist Party I see Bachmann as close as you can get to our Founding Fathers among modern hack American politicians.  From my vantage point she is still too liberal.  Too wedded to the siren song of Big Brother government and the Marxist re-distribution of wealth. 

But that being said, the woman has titanium for a spine and believes in the Constitution.  Bachmann could be the American Margaret Thatcher.  Just the person we need at this exact moment in time to keep the nation from falling over the cliff into the Black Hole of Socialism and bankruptcy.

Henry Clay.  As Speaker of the
House he got 37 electoral votes.

The problem is history itself is working against Bachmann getting the Republican nomination.

Why?  Her sex is still an issue in this day and age, but more important is that the highest elected office she has held is as a member of the House of Representatives.

American history shows that Congressmen have a tough time in Presidential politics. 

Voting for President has always been complex.  There are many factors in play when voters select a candidate.  Fame, good looks, speaking ability, education and political experience.  The experience part of the equasion appears to overide many of the others.  People usually do not want an unknown candidate who might "rock the boat." 

A quick review of major candidates who were nominated for President breaks down:
  • 28   -   were Governors
  • 24   -   were U.S. Senators
  • 9     -   were elected Vice Presidents
  • 9     -   were Army Generals
The remainder of candidates held an assortment of jobs as judges, cabinet members or businessmen.  Very few came directly from the House of Representatives to become the nominee of a political party.

One term Congressman Lincoln made it
to the White House.
 People like well known, safer choices.  Members of the House usually do not have a national following.  That takes time to build.  Congresswoman Bachmann has that national following.  But will the voters see her as a "safe" choice to sit in the Oval Office?

There have been only a select few who have made the run for President from the House.

HENRY CLAY:   In the 1824 election Clay was serving as the Speaker of the House.  Representing the new western frontier of Kentucky, Clay got 37 electoral votes in his first outing for President.

ABRAHAM LINCOLN:   Perhaps the most unqualified man to ever get a major party nomination for President.  Lincoln served a single two year term in the House.  He called himself  "an old line Whig, a disciple of Henry Clay".   His only real claim to any fame was to lose a campaign for Senator from Illinois.  But luck was with him.  The eyes of the nation were on him because he went toe to toe and held his own with the great Stephen Douglas.

HORACE GREELEY:   In 1872 Greeley took his single two year term in the House and his fame as an anti-slavery newspaper editor to get the nomination of the Liberal Republican Party.

JAMES GARFIELD:   In 1880 Garfield captured the GOP nomination based on an 18 year career in the House and his fame as a Civil War general.

JAMES WEAVER:   Congressman Weaver obtained the 1892 nomination of the Populist Party after having been a Greenback and Republican Party member.  He carried four states getting 22 electoral votes.

18 year House member James Garfield was elected President.

WILLIAM JENNINGS BRYAN:   A youthful Bryan took four years in the House to get the Democratic Party nominations in 1896, 1900 and in 1908.  A true  record.

JOHN W. DAVIS:   The Democratic nomination of 1924 was not worth having.  The party was slaughtered getting only 28% of the vote.  Davis had a single two years in the House supported by a couple of appointed positions where he was totally invisable to the public.

So can Bachmann do it?  She has many of the historical factors voters are looking for:  the education, the fame, the speaking ability, the good looks, six years in the State Senate and five in the House.  Plus she is viewed as a  leader of a nationwide political movement, the Tea Party.   

Time will tell.  The historical odds are against Bachmann.  But that did not stop Lincoln. 

Bryan.  Both the most successful and unsuccessful House member to run.
Winning three nominations and losing three times.

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