"There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with
power to endanger the public liberty." - - - - John Adams

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Iran and the drums of war

"Barbarism is the natural state of mankind. Civilization is unnatural. It is a whim of circumstance. And barbarism must always ultimately triumph."

- - - Robert E. Howard
"Beyond the Black River" (1935)

By Gary;

The very late, but still very great, Robert E. Howard cut through all of mankind's Bullshit with just that one statement.  Humans are indeed barbarians.  We have been trying to kill each other off since the first caveman.  Now with biological and atomic weapons we finally have the power to do the job right.

So here we are once again listening to the beating of the drums of war in the Persian Gulf.

To me these modern drums of war sound an awful lot like Sarajevo in the 1914 Austro-Hungarian Empire.  A single spark in Sarajevo set off World War I, revolution in the Russian Empire, the British-French colonization of the Middle East, and tens of millions in civilian and military dead.

Unless cooler heads prevail, what might a spark in the Persian Gulf ignite?  A pro-Iranian revolution in Pakistan and those nukes coming under the control of who knows who?  A pro-Iranian revolution in the oil rich Gulf states?  A pro-Iranian uprising in Iraq?  The overthrow of the Saudi monarchy?

The one thing history teaches us is wars mostly end in ways no one could predict.

The navy of Iran.
Would Western nations be willing to attack and sink the navy of Iran?  A land
invasion would be out of the question.  A NATO army cannot even control Afghanistan.

THE WEST  -  Israel and the Western nations are doing a lot of chest beating on Iran's nuke program.  The media is leading the way to war with tons of yellow journalism.  But getting back to reality, how do you close down underground facilities deep inside Iran?  Leaders around the world have been watching too many Hollywood war movies if they think this is easy.

Invade Iran?  That is just a wet-dream fantasy of armchair warriors.  The British were unable to control a hostile countryside in the American Revolution.  Nor were the French and Americans able to control a hostile countryside in Vietnam.  Currently a NATO army cannot even control Afghanistan.

The idea that we could invade and control a much larger Iran filled with Islamic passion is crazy talk.

Cutting off their gasoline imports might be the only option, but would that provide the dreaded Sarajevo spark with China and Russia supporting Iran?  What if Chinese ships escorted by the Chinese navy sailed into the Persian Gulf to dock in Iran?  What then?  There is no way to know.

Iran: Armed Forces Day 2011

IRAN  -  First of all let me say that the Iranian government is a bunch of crazy-ass bastards.  But the historian in me knows the Islamic religious passion in the Muslim world is nothing new.  No one needs a war.  The West needs to do a lot more talking and more economic pressure.

But sometimes the paranoids are right and they really are after you.  Iran has been attacked over and over again. 

In the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 the Russian and British Empires carved up Iran between them without any thought about what the Iranian people wanted.  In 1941 Britain and the USSR invaded Iran to gain control of the oil fields.  They overthrew the Shah Reza Pahlavi and replaced him with a child puppet king.  The Shah died while under arrest in British South Africa.

In 1953 to protect oil interests the British and American intelligence agencies overthrew the Iranian government and placed an absolute monarch on the throne.  Then in 1980 Iraq invaded Iran in a long eight year war resulting in upwards of 1,000,000 dead.

Iran has the right to feel paranoid.  The right to feel that atomic power might make their neighbors leave them alone.  But their reckless talk about Israel and other neighbors just adds fuel to the fires of a new war.  Plus fears are raised about the re-creation of a new Persian Empire.  Nukes could do a lot to help create a greater Iran.

About the only answer I can see is to buy gold, food and ammo for your barbed wired compound.

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 was the trigger for war, millions of deaths
and revolution in Europe.  What events would an attack on Iran trigger?

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