Conservative Asian Immigrant Ahead of Incumbent Hispanic Democrat
- Kim is supported by 46% and Cisneros is supported by 42% of all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents about 85% of all registered voters in the district). Another 12% are undecided.
- The Republican’s edge grows, though, when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Kim a 51% to 41% lead over Cisneros. But even a model that projects a possible turnout surge in Democratic precincts still gives Kim a lead of 49% to 43%.
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