The Federalist: Top House Seats to Change Hands in 2014

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Top House Seats to Change Hands in 2014 - Part 3

It's Marx vs. Conservatism

If the Democrats win the House plan on the US becoming

a one-party People's Republic like Venezuela

Democrats look very unlikely to pick up the 17 seats they would need to retake the House majority, and they could lose seats.

At the six year mark for an incumbent President the opposition party has picked up 30 seats on average in the House. From my viewpoint that projection is too high for 2014. I think a 20 seat GOP pick up in closer.

Here are ten congressional districts most likely to flip from one party to the other this November according to the National Journal.

See our previous stories for districts one to ten and for districts 11 to 20.

Here are districts 21 to 30 likely to flip.

21. Illinois-12—Rep. Bill Enyart (D) is running for reelection
Culturally, this downstate seat—bordered by Kentucky to the south and Missouri to the west—looks a lot like the type of Democratic district Republicans have flat-out assimilated, Borg-like, over the past few years, though Democrats still maintain a slight generic edge here. Enyart won his freshman term more easily than Republicans were expecting, though they think state Rep. Mike Bost could give him a run for his money.

22. Georgia-12—Rep. John Barrow (D) is running for reelection
Barrow ran a flawless 2012 campaign against a flawed opponent—and he still won with just under 54 percent. Such is life for the last remaining House Democrat in the Deep South. Romney won the seat by 12 percentage points, and Barrow's ceiling is too low for comfort no matter how much even House GOP strategists grudgingly praise his political survival instincts. Republican Rick Allen's deep pockets could play a role here.

GOP Congressman David Valadao won in a nearly impossible
deep blue California district.
Valadao for Congress.com

23. California-21—Rep. David Valadao (R) is running for reelection
By presidential performance, this is the second-bluest seat held by a House Republican, so the relatively untested Valadao has to look over his shoulder a bit. But those numbers also obscure some major issues for Democrats in the Central Valley. Former Senate staffer Amanda Renteria has Democrats excited and may prove to be a strong campaigner, but her party just lost a 2013 state Senate special election in a district that largely overlapped with the 21st.

24. New York-19—Rep. Chris Gibson (R) is running for reelection
Gibson has proven a great electoral fit for the district, even as Obama carried the Hudson Valley seat in 2012, but investor Sean Eldridge (who is married to Facebook cofounder Chris Hughes) brings connections and cash to bear on the race, which has Republicans nervous. They've already begun savaging Eldridge as a carpetbagger out of touch with the median voter, while preemptively wincing at what might happen in an expensive race. Democrats tried and failed in 2012 to convince area voters that they should support a Democrat for Congress if they were going to support Obama; that will an important page in the playbook again in 2014.

U.S. Army Colonel Joe Heck won his Las Vegas, Nevada seat in 2010 by a narrow margin. He was re-elected in 2012 with only 50.4% of the vote. Without patriots like Colonel Heck winning is tough seats the Marxists would have total control of our government.
Heck 4 Nevada.com

Nevada's 3rd congressional district election, 2010
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Joe Heck	128,916	48.13%
	Democratic	Dina Titus (inc.)	127,168	47.47%
	Independent	Barri Michaels	6,473	2.42%
	Libertarian	Joseph P. Silvestri	4,026	1.50%
	Independent American	Scott David Narter	1,291	0.48%
Totals			267,874	100.00%
	Republican gain from Democratic

25. Nevada-03—Rep. Joe Heck (R) is running for reelection
Heck beat back a Democratic challenge in 2012 rather easily considering the seat's narrow lean for Obama, and Democrat Erin Bilbray might be a tougher matchup when all is said and done. The big issue in this race so far has been immigration. Heck has endorsed a pathway to citizenship, but he has opposed the bipartisan Senate bill for comprehensive reform, and the biggest immigration vote he took in 2013 was one to defund Obama's executive Dream Act-style program. Bilbray has had trouble landing punches on the issue, but Heck could be a gauge of how immigration reform affects Republican prospects in diverse districts.

26. Illinois-10—Rep. Brad Schneider (D) is running for reelection
Democrats finally captured this district in 2012, when it was the bluest GOP-held seat in the country, after years of failed efforts. That type of seat often stays put once it finally flips, but former Rep. Bob Dold proved himself to be a reasonable Republican fit there last term and can run against Congress now, instead of as part of it. Illinois Democrats and Florida Republicans may have a similar worry this cycle: Keep an eye out for whether unpopular Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn suppresses enthusiasm for Schneider north of Chicago.

27. Pennsylvania-08—Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) is running for reelection
Fitzpatrick's easy victory last cycle means that Democrats' first-time candidates have to prove they can make the seat competitive, though its another district that split between Obama and a GOP congressman. This is another state where Democrats hope an unpopular governor (Tom Corbett) drags down Republican performance down-ticket.

GOP Rep. Michael Grimm
This former Marine won a New York City
seat by a narrow 52% - 47% margin.
Grimm for Congress

28. New Hampshire-02—Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) is running for reelection
Kuster/span> has only been in politics for a few years, but she has already accumulated a startling record of public gaffes, including grabbing a camera from a tracker, trying to grab the microphone from then-Rep. Charles Bass during a debate in 2012, and, most recently, dismissing a series of aggressive questions at a town-hall meeting. The district is Democratic-leaning—Kuster barely lost in 2010 despite that year's Republican wave—but it is not immune to the nation's political swings, and Kuster may prove to be a liability to herself. A small-sample poll from WMUR last October showed her unfavorability higher than her favorability rating, in contrast to her in-state Democratic colleague Shea-Porter, who represents a less friendly district.

29. New York-11—Rep. Michael Grimm (R) is running for reelection
Democrats' latest challenge to Grimm will be better-funded than their last, thanks to former New York City Councilor Domenic Recchia's connections, and the race looks set to be nastier, too, with Recchia and Grimm already going back and forth raising ethical issues about each other. Recchia is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, but Democrats are betting he can still make a stronger push there even as Grimm argues he's more in tune with the district. This is one of just a handful of districts where Obama improved on his 2008 showing last election, though it's hard to say how much of that might have been a temporary effect of Hurricane Sandy.

30. Texas-23—Rep. Pete Gallego (D) is running for reelection
As with some previous districts, the numbers—including a Romney win here in 2012—dictate that Gallego stay on the watch list. But the NRCC quietly kept recruiting in this vast West Texas district after all three Republican candidates were already running, which sends a frank message about how the GOP views their prospects. Part of the problem: Former Rep. Quico Canseco, the best-known of the three Republican contenders, was savaged by Democratic ads last cycle, with lingering results on public opinion.

For the full story go to The National Journal.

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Thomas Pinckney, Federalist

Commissioned as captain in the 1st South Carolina Regiment of the Continental Army. After seeing much action, he became an aide-de-camp to General Horatio Gates. He was captured by the British at the disastrous Battle of Camden in 1780. After recovering from his wounds, he was released in a prisoner exchange. In 1781 he fought under Lafayette in Virginia. Appointed by President George Washington to be the U.S. minister to Great Britain served as Envoy Extraordinary to Spain. The Federalist Party made him a candidate in the 1796 presidential election as the intended running-mate of John Adams. Served as Congressman and Governor of South Carolina. Served as a major general in the Army during the War of 1812.

Henry Lee III, Federalist

Major General "Light-Horse Harry" Lee fought at the battles of Paulus Hook, Guilford Court House, Eutaw Springs, Yorktown and the Whiskey Rebellion. Federalist Congressman from Virginia, Governor of Virginia. Father of Robert E. Lee. In 1812 Lee was attacked by a Jeffersonian mob of Democratic-Republicans while defending a Federalist newspaper from attack. Lee and the other Federalists were beaten and tortured by the mob over the next three hours. Lee was left partially blinded after hot wax was poured into his eyes. The men were left for dead. All were severely injured, and one Federalist, General James Lingan, died.

Frederick Frelinghuysen, Federalist

In the War of Independence he served in the New Jersey militia as an artillery captain, seeing action at Trenton and Monmouth. Attained the rank of colonel. Member of the Continental Congress. Served in the New Jersey General Assembly. Member of the New Jersey convention that ratified the United States Constitution in 1787. President George Washington appointed him as brigadier general in the United States Army for the 1790 campaign against the western Indians. Commissioned major general in the New Jersey militia in 1794, during the Whiskey Rebellion. Elected to the United States Senate.

Stephen Van Rensselaer, Federalist

Van Rensselaer served in the New York Assembly and Senate. He served as the Federalist Lt. Governor under John Jay. In 1786, Van Rensselaer was made a major of the militia. As a Major General in the War of 1812 he led an army in an invasion of Canada and fought at the Battle of Queenston Heights. In 1813 Van Rensselaer was the Federalist candidate for Governor of New York earning 48% of the vote. A shift of only 1,800 votes would have made him Governor. In 1822 he was elected to Congress as a Federalist serving until 1829.

WILLIAM PATERSON, Federalist

James Hillhouse, Federalist

Hillhouse served as captain in Governor's Foot Guards in the Revolutionary War. He was a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives, Congressman from Connecticut at-large, 1791–96, and a Federalist Party U. S. Senator from Connecticut, 1796–1810. He was the anti-slavery leader of the Congress in the early days of the Republic. After the Louisiana Purchase of 1803, Hillhouse fought to bar the importation of slaves into the Louisiana Territory. "I consider slavery as a serious evil," he proclaimed, "and wish to check it wherever I have authority." Two of Hillhouse's amendments restricting slavery passed the Congress and were signed into law.

Oliver Ellsworth, Federalist

In 1777 he was chosen as one of Connecticut's representatives in the Continental Congress. Served at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia as a delegate from Connecticut. On June 20, 1787 he proposed the use of the name the United States to identify the nation under the authority of the Constitution. United States Senator from Connecticut. Ellsworth was the principal exponent in the Senate of Alexander Hamilton's economic program. In 1796 Ellsworth was appointed by President George Washington to be Chief Justice of the United States. Served as United States Envoy Extraordinary to the Court of France. Ellsworth was a candidate in the 1796 United States Presidential election, receiving eleven votes in the electoral college.

Robert Goodloe Harper, Federalist

At the age of fifteen, Harper joined a volunteer corps of Cavalry and served in the American Revolutionary Army. Harper was elected as a Federalist Congressman from South Carolina (1795 - 1801). In 1798 at a dinner in Philadelphia honoring John Marshall, a group of U.S. Congressmen were discussing a recent demand made by the government of France. French vessels had been plundering US ships in a piratical manner. French foreign minister Talleyrand said the attacks would be stopped if the US paid him $250,000 and gave France 50,000 pounds sterling and a $100 million loan. As toasts were made, Harper sent his own defiant reply to the French with this toast: “Millions for defense but not one cent for tribute.” Harper served in the War of 1812, attaining the rank of major general. He moved to Maryland and was elected as a Federalist to the US Senate. He was an unsuccessful Federalist candidate for Vice President in the 1816 election. He also received one electoral vote for Vice President in the 1820 election.

Jacob Read, Federalist

Alexander Contee Hanson, Federalist

Member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Editor of the "Federal Republican", a Federalist Party newspaper in Baltimore. Four days after the beginning of the War of 1812 a mob of pro-war Democrat-Republicans destroyed his newspaper office. The paper moved to another building where Hanson was joined by a group of armed allies. When that building was besieged by another mob, Hanson and his group fired, killing two. Hanson and his group surrendered to the militia and were escorted to jail. That evening yet another mob stormed the jail. Hanson was beaten and left for dead. Hanson was elected as a Federalist to Congress in 1812 and 1814. In 1816 he was elected as a Federalist to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate until his death in 1819 at the age of 33.

William Bingham, Federalist

As a merchant he brought full loads of munitions & guns for the war. Served as a diplomat for Congress to France. Bingham marshaled the Second Troop of Philadelphia Light Horse. He served in the Continental Congress, 1st Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, State Senator, and US Senator. Federalists agreed to hold preliminary votings at the Bingham Estate before propositions were brought before Congress publicly, thus creating unanimity among party lines. Alexander Hamilton sought Bingham as his mentor in managing taxes, tariffs, and in constructing a national bank.

Ezekiel Whitman, Federalist

Whitman practiced law in New Gloucester, Maine and in Portland, Maine (both communities a district of Massachusetts until 1820). In 1808 Whitman was elected as a Federalist Congressman from Massachusetts and served one term. In 1816 he was again elected as a Federalist to the US House serving from 1817 to 1821. In 1819 he was a delegate to the convention that prepared the constitution which led to Maine's statehood. In 1820 he was elected as a Federalist Congressman from the new state of Maine serving until 1822. Chief Justice of the Maine Supreme Court from 1841 to 1848.

David Cobb, Federalist

Cobb studied medicine in Boston and practiced in Taunton, Massachusetts. He was a member of the Massachusetts Provincial Congress in 1775; lieutenant colonel of Jackson’s regiment in 1777 and 1778, serving in Rhode Island and New Jersey; was aide-de-camp on the staff of General George Washington; appointed major general of militia in 1786. Fought in the New York and New Jersey Campaign, the Battles of Springfield, Monmouth, Rhode Island and Shay's Rebellion. He served the Federalist Party as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, President of the State Senate and Congressman.

Josiah Parker, Federalist

In 1775 Parker enlisted in the Continental Army. He was commissioned a major in the 5th Virginia Regiment in 1776 and became its colonel in 1778. His regiment served in Virginia under General Charles Lee and was transferred to George Washington. The regiment thereafter saw action at the Battles of Trenton, Princeton, Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth and the Siege of Charleston. During Cornwallis's Virginia campaign in 1781, the notorious Colonel Tarleton ransacked his home. He was elected to the First US Congress from Virginia serving for twelve years.

William Stephens Smith, Federalist

Smith married Abigail "Nabby" Adams, the daughter of President John Adams, and so was a brother-in-law of President John Quincy Adams, and an uncle of Charles Francis Adams. Served in the Revolutionary Army as aide-de-camp to General John Sullivan. Fought in the Battle of Long Island, was wounded at Harlem Heights, Battle of White Plains, was promoted to lieutenant colonel at the Battle of Trenton, fought at the Battle of Monmouth and Newport. He was on the staff of General Lafayette, became an adjutant in the Corps of Light Infantry, then transferred to the staff of George Washington. Elected as a Federalist Congressman from New York.

Oliver Wolcott, Jr., Federalist

John Rutledge, Jr., Federalist

Rutledge served as Congressman from South Carolina. A passionate Federalist, he supported Aaron Burr against Jefferson, founding the Charleston Courier (predecessor of the Post and Courier) to support his causes. Joining the South Carolina Militia in 1799, Rutledge served as commander of the Twenty-eighth Regiment in the War of 1812. He subsequently commanded the Seventh Brigade from 1816 until his death. Rutledge's life was fraught with controversy. Catching his wife (mother to his nine children) in a "clandestine visit" with Dr. Horace Senter, Rutledge challenged him to a duel, fatally wounding the doctor.

John Sergeant, Federalist

Member of the Pennsylvania state house of representatives 1808-1810; elected as a Federalist to Congress and served from 1815, to 1823. Sergeant was a strong backer of Henry Clay's American System and the Second Bank of the United States, and even traveled to Europe to negotiate loans to the Bank. He was a strong opponent of slavery who voted against the Missouri Compromise. In 1826 he was an envoy to the Panama Congress. Elected to Congress as an Adams candidate 1827 to 1829. Failing re-election he became legal counsel to the Bank of the United States. Sergeant was the Vice Presidential running mate in Henry Clay's campaign on the National Republican ticket in 1832. Elected as a Whig to Congress serving from 1837 to 1841.

John Laurance, Federalist

Philip Barton Key, Federalist

Key had been a Loyalist in the American Revolution. He served in the Maryland Loyalists Battalion as a captain. Key fought with the British Army from 1777 to 1781, until he was captured by the Spanish in Pensacola, Florida with the rest of his battalion. After the war he served as Mayor of Annapolis & member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Appointed a Federal Judge by John Adams. He was a Counsel to Justice Samuel Chase during Chase's Jefferson ordered impeachment show-trial in 1805. Elected as a Federalist to Congress from Maryland (1807 - 1813). Francis Scott Key was his nephew.