The Federalist: Top House Seats to Change Hands in 2014

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Top House Seats to Change Hands in 2014

It's Marx vs. Conservatism

If the Democrats win the House plan on the US becoming

a one-party People's Republic like Venezuela

Democrats look very unlikely to pick up the 17 seats they would need to retake the House majority, and they could lose seats.

At the six year mark for an incumbent President the opposition party has picked up 30 seats on average in the House. From my viewpoint that projection is too high for 2014. I think a 20 seat GOP pick up in closer.

Here are ten congressional districts most likely to flip from one party to the other this November according to the National Journal.

Here are districts 11 to 20 likely to flip. See our previous story for districts one to ten.

11. California-52—Rep. Scott Peters (D) is running for reelection
No serious Republican congressional candidate has drawn more attention for breaking the mold: Former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, who is openly gay, has also openly called for his party to deemphasize social issues and focus on pocketbook matters. Democrats successfully tagged DeMaio as over-conservative in his losing 2012 mayoral race, but both he and Peters have crossover appeal. A neat map from KPBS shows about two-thirds of Peters precincts also going for DeMaio where their races overlapped in 2012.

A Gay Conservative Republican for Congress
in San Diego.
Carl DeMaio for Congress

12. New Hampshire-01—Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) is running for reelection
This seat has switched parties three times in four elections, moving with the volatile national mood over that time. That's what gives Republicans their best chance to retake a seat in New England, where Shea-Porter and Democrats shut them out in 2012. Former Rep. Frank Guinta is running again and starts with a big name-ID edge for the Republican nomination, but recent polling suggests he's still bruised from the last election, which could be a liability. District voters gave Shea-Porter much stronger marks in the same survey.

13. Colorado-06—Rep. Mike Coffman (R) is running for reelection
Coffman took over from ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo when he joined Congress, but Coffman has had to execute something of a political reinvention on issues like immigration since his district was redrawn into a swing seat last cycle, when he barely won reelection. Democrat Andrew Romanoff, the former state House speaker, has been running against Coffman for nearly 12 months already, though he may regret not chasing the seat in a presidential year. (Obama carried this district in 2012.) Given the district dynamics, Coffman and Romanoff's gangbusters fundraising pace (over $1.5 million each after the first three quarters of last year), the size of the Denver media market, and the high-profile statewide races also on tap for the fall of 2014, this is a solid early bet to be the nation's most expensive House race this year.

14. California-07—Rep. Ami Bera (D) is running for reelection
Redistricting and the march of demographic change outside Sacramento helped Bera capture the seat in 2012, but three Republicans are linking him to the president's health care law and arguing he's part of D.C.'s problems in trying to replace him. The GOP battle for the second general-election spot could get nasty, if history is any guide: Former Rep. Doug Ose's last race was a Republican primary brawl against fellow candidate Igor Birman's old boss, Rep. Tom McClintock.

Carlos Curbelo for Congress

A Conservative Hispanic Republican for Congress

Carlos Curbelo for Congress

15. Florida-26—Rep. Joe Garcia (D) is running for reelection
Garcia is raising money hand-over-foot, but he's been dogged by a weird scandal (staffers of his plotted to fraudulently cast absentee ballots, apparently without the candidate's knowledge). Republican Carlos Curbelo could be a strong challenger. One underreported fact about this district: Garcia's 2012 victory is attributed to then-Rep. David Rivera's complete campaign meltdown amidst scandal but Obama's margin over Mitt Romney in the district was almost exactly the same as Garcia's over Rivera. Cuban-heavy Miami is experiencing something of a Democratic shift in national politics. GOP Gov. Rick Scott's approval could also be a problem for Republicans in the Sunshine State in November.

16. Illinois-13—Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is running for reelection
Davis has a March primary challenge, but that's not the obstacle here: He won one of the nation's tightest races—the closest one Democrats lost in 2012—against a perennial candidate, and Democrats have gotten behind former judge Ann Callis for a potentially stronger bid this time. Callis's long judicial tenure has left behind a record that the GOP is already picking away at, though.

17. Florida-02—Rep. Steve Southerland (R) is running for reelection
Democrats had another near-miss in the Florida Panhandle in 2012, though the path to victory here slopes steeply upward toward the end, Heartbreak Hill-style. As Stu Rothenberg has pointed out, the last couple of percentage points are a very difficult climb for Democrats in the 2nd District, though Gwen Graham's family name, connections, and lack of a political record make her a legit threat to Southerland, who hasn't always fundraised well.

General Election results 2012 - Michigan CD 1
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dan Benishek (Incumbent)	167,060	48.1%
	Democratic	Gary McDowell	165,179	47.6%
	Libertarian	Emily Salvette	10,630	3.1%
	Green	Ellis Boal	4,168	1.2%
Totals			347,037	100%
	Republican hold		Swing	{{{swing}}}

E

18. Michigan-01—Rep. Dan Benishek (R) is running for reelection
Benishek also struggled struggled with his campaign at times in the last few years, and polls consistently showed him mired in the low-40s in 2012 before he pulled out a narrow victory over repeat candidate Gary McDowell. Now, Democrats have a fresh face in local sheriff Jerry Cannon, who would have to overcome the Upper Peninsula's generically conservative tilt to win.

19. Florida-18—Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) is running for reelection
By the numbers, this race ought to go higher, with Romney having carried the district as Murphy just squeaked by controversial Rep. Allen West in 2012. But the GOP isn't so sure it has a marquee challenger here, and there's a reason why some Florida Republicans pined for former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, a prodigious fundraiser, last year. Then again, plenty of folks scoffed at Murphy's viability as he set out last cycle, too. No one will ever run away with this district, but Murphy's high fundraising and luck of the draw so far move him a bit further down the list.

20. California-36—Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) is running for reelection
Republicans identified a candidate here early: Assemblyman Brian Nestande is a veteran of the Bono political machine. But he's started slowly, especially on the fundraising front. The Palm Springs-based district is changing rapidly, which helped fuel Ruiz's unexpected victory last term and helped Obama actually perform slightly better here in 2012 than 2008 despite losing ground nationally. If Ruiz can hold his seat and give that change another couple of years, congressional Republicans may never get another chance to retake the 36th.

For the full story go to The National Journal.

California GOP Assemblyman Brian Nestande is in a tough race to retake a
seat the Republicans lost in the 2012 Obama landslide.
Brian Nestande for Congress

Palm Springs - The Key to Congress
The People's Republic of California is key to having a non-Marxist majority in the House of Representatives. The Golden State currently sends 15 Republicans to the House (almost the entire GOP majority margin). Just ten year ago Republicans had 20 to 24 seats.
.
The 36th District (map below) is an example of the failure of the Republican Party and Conservatism. The district is based around solidly middle class communities like Palm Springs. The GOP has lost middle class seat after middle class seat. Simply, if the Republican platform is unable to win middle class districts then there is no future for the party.

California's 36th District
click to enlarge

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Thomas Pinckney, Federalist

Commissioned as captain in the 1st South Carolina Regiment of the Continental Army. After seeing much action, he became an aide-de-camp to General Horatio Gates. He was captured by the British at the disastrous Battle of Camden in 1780. After recovering from his wounds, he was released in a prisoner exchange. In 1781 he fought under Lafayette in Virginia. Appointed by President George Washington to be the U.S. minister to Great Britain served as Envoy Extraordinary to Spain. The Federalist Party made him a candidate in the 1796 presidential election as the intended running-mate of John Adams. Served as Congressman and Governor of South Carolina. Served as a major general in the Army during the War of 1812.

Henry Lee III, Federalist

Major General "Light-Horse Harry" Lee fought at the battles of Paulus Hook, Guilford Court House, Eutaw Springs, Yorktown and the Whiskey Rebellion. Federalist Congressman from Virginia, Governor of Virginia. Father of Robert E. Lee. In 1812 Lee was attacked by a Jeffersonian mob of Democratic-Republicans while defending a Federalist newspaper from attack. Lee and the other Federalists were beaten and tortured by the mob over the next three hours. Lee was left partially blinded after hot wax was poured into his eyes. The men were left for dead. All were severely injured, and one Federalist, General James Lingan, died.

Frederick Frelinghuysen, Federalist

In the War of Independence he served in the New Jersey militia as an artillery captain, seeing action at Trenton and Monmouth. Attained the rank of colonel. Member of the Continental Congress. Served in the New Jersey General Assembly. Member of the New Jersey convention that ratified the United States Constitution in 1787. President George Washington appointed him as brigadier general in the United States Army for the 1790 campaign against the western Indians. Commissioned major general in the New Jersey militia in 1794, during the Whiskey Rebellion. Elected to the United States Senate.

Stephen Van Rensselaer, Federalist

Van Rensselaer served in the New York Assembly and Senate. He served as the Federalist Lt. Governor under John Jay. In 1786, Van Rensselaer was made a major of the militia. As a Major General in the War of 1812 he led an army in an invasion of Canada and fought at the Battle of Queenston Heights. In 1813 Van Rensselaer was the Federalist candidate for Governor of New York earning 48% of the vote. A shift of only 1,800 votes would have made him Governor. In 1822 he was elected to Congress as a Federalist serving until 1829.

WILLIAM PATERSON, Federalist

James Hillhouse, Federalist

Hillhouse served as captain in Governor's Foot Guards in the Revolutionary War. He was a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives, Congressman from Connecticut at-large, 1791–96, and a Federalist Party U. S. Senator from Connecticut, 1796–1810. He was the anti-slavery leader of the Congress in the early days of the Republic. After the Louisiana Purchase of 1803, Hillhouse fought to bar the importation of slaves into the Louisiana Territory. "I consider slavery as a serious evil," he proclaimed, "and wish to check it wherever I have authority." Two of Hillhouse's amendments restricting slavery passed the Congress and were signed into law.

Oliver Ellsworth, Federalist

In 1777 he was chosen as one of Connecticut's representatives in the Continental Congress. Served at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia as a delegate from Connecticut. On June 20, 1787 he proposed the use of the name the United States to identify the nation under the authority of the Constitution. United States Senator from Connecticut. Ellsworth was the principal exponent in the Senate of Alexander Hamilton's economic program. In 1796 Ellsworth was appointed by President George Washington to be Chief Justice of the United States. Served as United States Envoy Extraordinary to the Court of France. Ellsworth was a candidate in the 1796 United States Presidential election, receiving eleven votes in the electoral college.

Robert Goodloe Harper, Federalist

At the age of fifteen, Harper joined a volunteer corps of Cavalry and served in the American Revolutionary Army. Harper was elected as a Federalist Congressman from South Carolina (1795 - 1801). In 1798 at a dinner in Philadelphia honoring John Marshall, a group of U.S. Congressmen were discussing a recent demand made by the government of France. French vessels had been plundering US ships in a piratical manner. French foreign minister Talleyrand said the attacks would be stopped if the US paid him $250,000 and gave France 50,000 pounds sterling and a $100 million loan. As toasts were made, Harper sent his own defiant reply to the French with this toast: “Millions for defense but not one cent for tribute.” Harper served in the War of 1812, attaining the rank of major general. He moved to Maryland and was elected as a Federalist to the US Senate. He was an unsuccessful Federalist candidate for Vice President in the 1816 election. He also received one electoral vote for Vice President in the 1820 election.

Jacob Read, Federalist

Alexander Contee Hanson, Federalist

Member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Editor of the "Federal Republican", a Federalist Party newspaper in Baltimore. Four days after the beginning of the War of 1812 a mob of pro-war Democrat-Republicans destroyed his newspaper office. The paper moved to another building where Hanson was joined by a group of armed allies. When that building was besieged by another mob, Hanson and his group fired, killing two. Hanson and his group surrendered to the militia and were escorted to jail. That evening yet another mob stormed the jail. Hanson was beaten and left for dead. Hanson was elected as a Federalist to Congress in 1812 and 1814. In 1816 he was elected as a Federalist to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate until his death in 1819 at the age of 33.

William Bingham, Federalist

As a merchant he brought full loads of munitions & guns for the war. Served as a diplomat for Congress to France. Bingham marshaled the Second Troop of Philadelphia Light Horse. He served in the Continental Congress, 1st Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, State Senator, and US Senator. Federalists agreed to hold preliminary votings at the Bingham Estate before propositions were brought before Congress publicly, thus creating unanimity among party lines. Alexander Hamilton sought Bingham as his mentor in managing taxes, tariffs, and in constructing a national bank.

Ezekiel Whitman, Federalist

Whitman practiced law in New Gloucester, Maine and in Portland, Maine (both communities a district of Massachusetts until 1820). In 1808 Whitman was elected as a Federalist Congressman from Massachusetts and served one term. In 1816 he was again elected as a Federalist to the US House serving from 1817 to 1821. In 1819 he was a delegate to the convention that prepared the constitution which led to Maine's statehood. In 1820 he was elected as a Federalist Congressman from the new state of Maine serving until 1822. Chief Justice of the Maine Supreme Court from 1841 to 1848.

David Cobb, Federalist

Cobb studied medicine in Boston and practiced in Taunton, Massachusetts. He was a member of the Massachusetts Provincial Congress in 1775; lieutenant colonel of Jackson’s regiment in 1777 and 1778, serving in Rhode Island and New Jersey; was aide-de-camp on the staff of General George Washington; appointed major general of militia in 1786. Fought in the New York and New Jersey Campaign, the Battles of Springfield, Monmouth, Rhode Island and Shay's Rebellion. He served the Federalist Party as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, President of the State Senate and Congressman.

Josiah Parker, Federalist

In 1775 Parker enlisted in the Continental Army. He was commissioned a major in the 5th Virginia Regiment in 1776 and became its colonel in 1778. His regiment served in Virginia under General Charles Lee and was transferred to George Washington. The regiment thereafter saw action at the Battles of Trenton, Princeton, Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth and the Siege of Charleston. During Cornwallis's Virginia campaign in 1781, the notorious Colonel Tarleton ransacked his home. He was elected to the First US Congress from Virginia serving for twelve years.

William Stephens Smith, Federalist

Smith married Abigail "Nabby" Adams, the daughter of President John Adams, and so was a brother-in-law of President John Quincy Adams, and an uncle of Charles Francis Adams. Served in the Revolutionary Army as aide-de-camp to General John Sullivan. Fought in the Battle of Long Island, was wounded at Harlem Heights, Battle of White Plains, was promoted to lieutenant colonel at the Battle of Trenton, fought at the Battle of Monmouth and Newport. He was on the staff of General Lafayette, became an adjutant in the Corps of Light Infantry, then transferred to the staff of George Washington. Elected as a Federalist Congressman from New York.

Oliver Wolcott, Jr., Federalist

John Rutledge, Jr., Federalist

Rutledge served as Congressman from South Carolina. A passionate Federalist, he supported Aaron Burr against Jefferson, founding the Charleston Courier (predecessor of the Post and Courier) to support his causes. Joining the South Carolina Militia in 1799, Rutledge served as commander of the Twenty-eighth Regiment in the War of 1812. He subsequently commanded the Seventh Brigade from 1816 until his death. Rutledge's life was fraught with controversy. Catching his wife (mother to his nine children) in a "clandestine visit" with Dr. Horace Senter, Rutledge challenged him to a duel, fatally wounding the doctor.

John Sergeant, Federalist

Member of the Pennsylvania state house of representatives 1808-1810; elected as a Federalist to Congress and served from 1815, to 1823. Sergeant was a strong backer of Henry Clay's American System and the Second Bank of the United States, and even traveled to Europe to negotiate loans to the Bank. He was a strong opponent of slavery who voted against the Missouri Compromise. In 1826 he was an envoy to the Panama Congress. Elected to Congress as an Adams candidate 1827 to 1829. Failing re-election he became legal counsel to the Bank of the United States. Sergeant was the Vice Presidential running mate in Henry Clay's campaign on the National Republican ticket in 1832. Elected as a Whig to Congress serving from 1837 to 1841.

John Laurance, Federalist

Philip Barton Key, Federalist

Key had been a Loyalist in the American Revolution. He served in the Maryland Loyalists Battalion as a captain. Key fought with the British Army from 1777 to 1781, until he was captured by the Spanish in Pensacola, Florida with the rest of his battalion. After the war he served as Mayor of Annapolis & member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Appointed a Federal Judge by John Adams. He was a Counsel to Justice Samuel Chase during Chase's Jefferson ordered impeachment show-trial in 1805. Elected as a Federalist to Congress from Maryland (1807 - 1813). Francis Scott Key was his nephew.