The Federalist: FEMA: "Social Unrest" Caused by 395% Food Price Spikes

Thursday, June 30, 2016

FEMA: "Social Unrest" Caused by 395% Food Price Spikes

A man with goods looted from a store walks past burning
vehicles during clashes in Baltimore. (More)

Are You Ready For

The Coming Food Riots?

It is a simple fact that U.S. food reserves are nearly non-existent. Product is rushed from field to store as rapidly as possible.
So what happens when that tenuous supply chain is interrupted of a multi-year drought, terrorism or an EMP Blast that shuts down the power grid and Internet? Food riots.

(Motherboard) - The US national security industry is planning for the impact of an unprecedented global food crisis lasting as long as a decade, according to reports by a government contractor.

The studies published by CNA Corporation in December 2015, unreported until now, describe a detailed simulation of a protracted global food crisis from 2020 to 2030.

The simulation, titled ‘Food Chain Reaction’, was a desktop gaming exercise involving the participation of 65 officials from the US, Europe, Africa, India, Brazil, and key multilateral and intergovernmental institutions.

The scenario for the ‘Food Chain Reaction’ simulation was created by experts brought in from the State Department, the World Bank, and agribusiness giant Cargill, along with independent specialists. CNA Corp’s Institute for Public Research, which ran the simulation, primarily provides scientific research services for the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Lawrence Bryant with the St. Louis American took this photo
of riots in Ferguson, Missouri. (CNN)

Held from November 9-10 in 2015, the “game” attempted to simulate a plausible global food crisis triggered by “food price and supply swings amidst burgeoning population growth, rapid urbanization, severe weather events, and social unrest.”

By 2024, the scenario saw global food prices spike by as much as 395 percent due to prolonged crop failures in key food basket regions, driven largely by climate change, oil price spikes, and confused responses from the international community.

“Disruptions affected developed and developing countries alike, creating political and economic instability, and contributing to social unrest in certain areas,” the project’s technical report states.

The report notes that at the end of the simulation, the teams highlighted the important role of “extreme weather events” and “food insecurity” in exacerbating “instances of significant internal and external migration and social unrest.” These, in turn, greatly “contribute to conflict.”

NATIONAL SECURITY

Although the scenario was not produced as a forecast, it was designed to provide a plausible framework to test the resilience of the national security system from the perspective of the US government, private industry, and civil society.

CNA Corporation is a government contractor established in 1942 to provide scientific research for the US Navy and Marine Corps. Its CEO, Dr. Katherine A. W. McGrady, is a scientific analyst to the US military’s Chief of Naval Operations and the Vice Chief of Naval Operations.

Four different organisations commissioned CNA Corp to conduct the exercise: the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the Center for American Progress, giant food corporation Cargill, which controls a quarter of US grain exports, and Mars Inc., the global sweet manufacturer.

One outcome was a panel hosted on Tuesday by the Center for American Progress on ‘The National Security implications of Climate Change and Food Security’, featuring Nancy Stetson, the US State Department’s Special Representative for Global Food Security.

Baltimore Riots

Riots over race relations will be nothing compared to food riots

FROM CROP FAILURE TO SYSTEM FAILURE

The game begins in 2020 with a reasonably healthy global economy and oil prices that have now rebounded to $75 a barrel. Food prices climb steadily due to “weather-related disruptions to agricultural production,” affecting South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and North America. Global crop production falls 1 percent short of expectations leading to decreases in stock and further modest price increases.

Things get really rough after 2023 due to serious droughts and heatwaves in China, India, Russia, and Ukraine, coinciding with oil prices that rapidly increase to above $100 a barrel.

By 2024, heat and drought hit the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine, while subsiding elsewhere, triggering a food price spike “reaching 395 percent of long-term averages,” and a global economic slowdown.

By 2027, these conditions begin to calm only because an economic slump has diminished demand, while high prices stimulate food production. A respite from weather-related disruptions allows food stocks to be re-built, and prices then come down gradually.

The game closes with an optimistic scenario of food prices dropping from 395 to 141 percent of long-term averages and a recovering global economy.

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Thomas Pinckney, Federalist

Commissioned as captain in the 1st South Carolina Regiment of the Continental Army. After seeing much action, he became an aide-de-camp to General Horatio Gates. He was captured by the British at the disastrous Battle of Camden in 1780. After recovering from his wounds, he was released in a prisoner exchange. In 1781 he fought under Lafayette in Virginia. Appointed by President George Washington to be the U.S. minister to Great Britain served as Envoy Extraordinary to Spain. The Federalist Party made him a candidate in the 1796 presidential election as the intended running-mate of John Adams. Served as Congressman and Governor of South Carolina. Served as a major general in the Army during the War of 1812.

Henry Lee III, Federalist

Major General "Light-Horse Harry" Lee fought at the battles of Paulus Hook, Guilford Court House, Eutaw Springs, Yorktown and the Whiskey Rebellion. Federalist Congressman from Virginia, Governor of Virginia. Father of Robert E. Lee. In 1812 Lee was attacked by a Jeffersonian mob of Democratic-Republicans while defending a Federalist newspaper from attack. Lee and the other Federalists were beaten and tortured by the mob over the next three hours. Lee was left partially blinded after hot wax was poured into his eyes. The men were left for dead. All were severely injured, and one Federalist, General James Lingan, died.

Frederick Frelinghuysen, Federalist

In the War of Independence he served in the New Jersey militia as an artillery captain, seeing action at Trenton and Monmouth. Attained the rank of colonel. Member of the Continental Congress. Served in the New Jersey General Assembly. Member of the New Jersey convention that ratified the United States Constitution in 1787. President George Washington appointed him as brigadier general in the United States Army for the 1790 campaign against the western Indians. Commissioned major general in the New Jersey militia in 1794, during the Whiskey Rebellion. Elected to the United States Senate.

Stephen Van Rensselaer, Federalist

Van Rensselaer served in the New York Assembly and Senate. He served as the Federalist Lt. Governor under John Jay. In 1786, Van Rensselaer was made a major of the militia. As a Major General in the War of 1812 he led an army in an invasion of Canada and fought at the Battle of Queenston Heights. In 1813 Van Rensselaer was the Federalist candidate for Governor of New York earning 48% of the vote. A shift of only 1,800 votes would have made him Governor. In 1822 he was elected to Congress as a Federalist serving until 1829.

WILLIAM PATERSON, Federalist

James Hillhouse, Federalist

Hillhouse served as captain in Governor's Foot Guards in the Revolutionary War. He was a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives, Congressman from Connecticut at-large, 1791–96, and a Federalist Party U. S. Senator from Connecticut, 1796–1810. He was the anti-slavery leader of the Congress in the early days of the Republic. After the Louisiana Purchase of 1803, Hillhouse fought to bar the importation of slaves into the Louisiana Territory. "I consider slavery as a serious evil," he proclaimed, "and wish to check it wherever I have authority." Two of Hillhouse's amendments restricting slavery passed the Congress and were signed into law.

Oliver Ellsworth, Federalist

In 1777 he was chosen as one of Connecticut's representatives in the Continental Congress. Served at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia as a delegate from Connecticut. On June 20, 1787 he proposed the use of the name the United States to identify the nation under the authority of the Constitution. United States Senator from Connecticut. Ellsworth was the principal exponent in the Senate of Alexander Hamilton's economic program. In 1796 Ellsworth was appointed by President George Washington to be Chief Justice of the United States. Served as United States Envoy Extraordinary to the Court of France. Ellsworth was a candidate in the 1796 United States Presidential election, receiving eleven votes in the electoral college.

Robert Goodloe Harper, Federalist

At the age of fifteen, Harper joined a volunteer corps of Cavalry and served in the American Revolutionary Army. Harper was elected as a Federalist Congressman from South Carolina (1795 - 1801). In 1798 at a dinner in Philadelphia honoring John Marshall, a group of U.S. Congressmen were discussing a recent demand made by the government of France. French vessels had been plundering US ships in a piratical manner. French foreign minister Talleyrand said the attacks would be stopped if the US paid him $250,000 and gave France 50,000 pounds sterling and a $100 million loan. As toasts were made, Harper sent his own defiant reply to the French with this toast: “Millions for defense but not one cent for tribute.” Harper served in the War of 1812, attaining the rank of major general. He moved to Maryland and was elected as a Federalist to the US Senate. He was an unsuccessful Federalist candidate for Vice President in the 1816 election. He also received one electoral vote for Vice President in the 1820 election.

Jacob Read, Federalist

Alexander Contee Hanson, Federalist

Member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Editor of the "Federal Republican", a Federalist Party newspaper in Baltimore. Four days after the beginning of the War of 1812 a mob of pro-war Democrat-Republicans destroyed his newspaper office. The paper moved to another building where Hanson was joined by a group of armed allies. When that building was besieged by another mob, Hanson and his group fired, killing two. Hanson and his group surrendered to the militia and were escorted to jail. That evening yet another mob stormed the jail. Hanson was beaten and left for dead. Hanson was elected as a Federalist to Congress in 1812 and 1814. In 1816 he was elected as a Federalist to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate until his death in 1819 at the age of 33.

William Bingham, Federalist

As a merchant he brought full loads of munitions & guns for the war. Served as a diplomat for Congress to France. Bingham marshaled the Second Troop of Philadelphia Light Horse. He served in the Continental Congress, 1st Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, State Senator, and US Senator. Federalists agreed to hold preliminary votings at the Bingham Estate before propositions were brought before Congress publicly, thus creating unanimity among party lines. Alexander Hamilton sought Bingham as his mentor in managing taxes, tariffs, and in constructing a national bank.

Ezekiel Whitman, Federalist

Whitman practiced law in New Gloucester, Maine and in Portland, Maine (both communities a district of Massachusetts until 1820). In 1808 Whitman was elected as a Federalist Congressman from Massachusetts and served one term. In 1816 he was again elected as a Federalist to the US House serving from 1817 to 1821. In 1819 he was a delegate to the convention that prepared the constitution which led to Maine's statehood. In 1820 he was elected as a Federalist Congressman from the new state of Maine serving until 1822. Chief Justice of the Maine Supreme Court from 1841 to 1848.

David Cobb, Federalist

Cobb studied medicine in Boston and practiced in Taunton, Massachusetts. He was a member of the Massachusetts Provincial Congress in 1775; lieutenant colonel of Jackson’s regiment in 1777 and 1778, serving in Rhode Island and New Jersey; was aide-de-camp on the staff of General George Washington; appointed major general of militia in 1786. Fought in the New York and New Jersey Campaign, the Battles of Springfield, Monmouth, Rhode Island and Shay's Rebellion. He served the Federalist Party as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, President of the State Senate and Congressman.

Josiah Parker, Federalist

In 1775 Parker enlisted in the Continental Army. He was commissioned a major in the 5th Virginia Regiment in 1776 and became its colonel in 1778. His regiment served in Virginia under General Charles Lee and was transferred to George Washington. The regiment thereafter saw action at the Battles of Trenton, Princeton, Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth and the Siege of Charleston. During Cornwallis's Virginia campaign in 1781, the notorious Colonel Tarleton ransacked his home. He was elected to the First US Congress from Virginia serving for twelve years.

William Stephens Smith, Federalist

Smith married Abigail "Nabby" Adams, the daughter of President John Adams, and so was a brother-in-law of President John Quincy Adams, and an uncle of Charles Francis Adams. Served in the Revolutionary Army as aide-de-camp to General John Sullivan. Fought in the Battle of Long Island, was wounded at Harlem Heights, Battle of White Plains, was promoted to lieutenant colonel at the Battle of Trenton, fought at the Battle of Monmouth and Newport. He was on the staff of General Lafayette, became an adjutant in the Corps of Light Infantry, then transferred to the staff of George Washington. Elected as a Federalist Congressman from New York.

Oliver Wolcott, Jr., Federalist

John Rutledge, Jr., Federalist

Rutledge served as Congressman from South Carolina. A passionate Federalist, he supported Aaron Burr against Jefferson, founding the Charleston Courier (predecessor of the Post and Courier) to support his causes. Joining the South Carolina Militia in 1799, Rutledge served as commander of the Twenty-eighth Regiment in the War of 1812. He subsequently commanded the Seventh Brigade from 1816 until his death. Rutledge's life was fraught with controversy. Catching his wife (mother to his nine children) in a "clandestine visit" with Dr. Horace Senter, Rutledge challenged him to a duel, fatally wounding the doctor.

John Sergeant, Federalist

Member of the Pennsylvania state house of representatives 1808-1810; elected as a Federalist to Congress and served from 1815, to 1823. Sergeant was a strong backer of Henry Clay's American System and the Second Bank of the United States, and even traveled to Europe to negotiate loans to the Bank. He was a strong opponent of slavery who voted against the Missouri Compromise. In 1826 he was an envoy to the Panama Congress. Elected to Congress as an Adams candidate 1827 to 1829. Failing re-election he became legal counsel to the Bank of the United States. Sergeant was the Vice Presidential running mate in Henry Clay's campaign on the National Republican ticket in 1832. Elected as a Whig to Congress serving from 1837 to 1841.

John Laurance, Federalist

Philip Barton Key, Federalist

Key had been a Loyalist in the American Revolution. He served in the Maryland Loyalists Battalion as a captain. Key fought with the British Army from 1777 to 1781, until he was captured by the Spanish in Pensacola, Florida with the rest of his battalion. After the war he served as Mayor of Annapolis & member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Appointed a Federal Judge by John Adams. He was a Counsel to Justice Samuel Chase during Chase's Jefferson ordered impeachment show-trial in 1805. Elected as a Federalist to Congress from Maryland (1807 - 1813). Francis Scott Key was his nephew.