The Federalist: Top 10 House Seats to Change Hands

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Top 10 House Seats to Change Hands

It's Marx vs. Conservatism

If the Democrats win the House plan on the US becoming

a one-party People's Republic like Venezuela

Democrats look very unlikely to pick up the 17 seats they would need to retake the House majority, and they could lose seats.

At the six year mark for an incumbent President the opposition party has picked up 30 seats on average in the House. From my viewpoint that projection is too high for 2014. I think a 20 seat GOP pick up in closer.

Let's begin with the top ten congressional districts most likely to flip from one party to the other this November according to the National Journal:

GOP Mayor Mia Love
The #1 Republican pick-up in the US

1. Utah-04—Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is retiring
Nothing is certain in politics, but Matheson's retirement basically cedes the seat to Republicans. Without his brand name, it's very difficult to imagine a Democrat overcoming the party's poor performance levels in this state and district. (President Obama just cleared 30 percent here in 2012, making it his 25th-worst district in the country.) Repeat GOP candidate Mia Love, who would be the first African-American Republican woman in Congress if she won, is now the biggest early favorite to become a House freshman in 2015, though Matheson's decision could spur some more GOP interest in the seat.

2. California-31—Rep. Gary Miller (R) is running for reelection
Miller is only in Congress right now thanks to a series of post-redistricting flukes, the biggest of which was a split Democratic vote allowing another Republican to sneak through California's top-two primary alongside Miller last cycle. The party isn't unified—the DCCC is backing Pete Aguilar, EMILY's List is behind Eloise Gomez Reyes, and former Rep. Joe Baca still has some support—but it's very hard to envision another repeat failure here, given the San Bernardino district's liberal lean (57 percent support for Obama in 2012).

3. Florida-13—Vacant: Rep. Bill Young (R) died in October
Young kept this district safely Republican even as the political terrain shifted underneath him over 40-plus years, to the point where President Obama carried it twice. Without Young to defend the seat, it is a prime Democratic pickup opportunity in a March special election and in Novemeber thereafter. Democrats' last gubernatorial nominee, Alex Sink, moved into to the district she carried in 2010, cleared the field, and just reported raising over $1 million in 2 months. Meanwhile, Republicans David Jolly and Kathleen Peters are fighting an increasingly nasty primary, and party members worry about the district, despite the opportunity to test-drive new Obamacare attacks in the special election.

4. Iowa-03—Rep. Tom Latham (R) is retiring
Stop us if you've heard this song before, but without Latham—a strong campaigner, from his local reputation to his fundraising ability—it will be much, much harder for Republicans to hold this Des Moines-based seat in 2014. Obama carried it in 2012, and Democratic state Sen. Staci Appel is going to have a big head start on whoever jumps in. But on the flip side, there may be additional Democratic interest here now that Latham is out of the way. Republican Senate candidate David Young, who has a preexisting federal campaign already going, just jumped at the chance to run here instead, and about a dozen Republicans in all have expressed interest in the seat.

GOP Mayor Steve Logan racked up a respectable 44% of the vote for
the New Jersey Senate seat election in 2013. Logan is now running
for the New Jersey 3 House seat.

5. New Jersey-03—Rep. Jon Runyan (R) is retiring
Republicans have held this seat for most of the past few decades despite a Democratic lean in presidential politics, and Runyan won reelection easily in 2012 even as President Obama carried the South Jersey district. But the GOP doesn't have an incumbent on the ballot to protect the seat this year, giving Democrats a golden opportunity to try and realign the district. The DCCC is already lined up behind local officeholder Aimee Belgard, while a number of Republicans are talking to the district's powerful county party chairs about making their own bids. The GOP's controversial nominee in last year's Senate special election against Cory Booker, Steve Lonegan, has said he'll run in the district, though he is not from there. That Republican primary will be one of several that electability-minded party members worry about this year.

6. Virginia-10—Rep. Frank Wolf (R) is retiring
Like his longtime colleague Bill Young, Wolf kept his seat perfectly safe despite big changes in local political leanings during his career. Now that Wolf is retiring, Democrats have a real opportunity to take advantage of those changes, which made the 10th District one of the closest in the 2012 presidential race. The GOP has a deep bench of potential candidates in the suburbs outside D.C., but some strategists are concerned the party will choose to nominate its standard bearer via a convention instead of a primary, heightening the chances of getting an unelectable nominee. We're defying other prognosticators here a bit, and this open seat is more Republican-leaning than the others. But open seats are by their nature more volatile than races with incumbents, and this district is too closely divided to bump down the list. The other open seats (like Montana's at-large district) lean much further toward one party or the other, meaning we will need more time to assess their competitiveness.

Republican Martha McSally lost her race for the House by
only 3,000 votes out of 292,000 cast.

7. Arizona-02—Rep. Ron Barber (D) is running for reelection
Barber almost lost in 2012 under unusual circumstances. Special election victors rarely a regular election just months later, but Barber trailed Republican Martha McSally on November's election night before eking out a slim victory thanks to a big edge in provisional ballots and early votes. Now McSally—who has a great story to tell as the nation's first female combat pilot—is off and running again, and though she has to clear a primary, Barber has his work cut out protecting a seat Republicans have carried in three straight presidential contests.

8. North Carolina-07—Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) is running for reelection
Just 654 votes separated McIntyre and state Sen. David Rouzer in 2012, the closest margin of any House race in the nation. Rouzer is back for another bid in this very conservative district, and it's a bit early to tell what kind of comeback he's putting together. Neither candidate's fundraising has blown anyone away, though Rouzer has put together a more well-organized campaign more quickly this time around.

9. West Virginia-03—Rep. Nick Rahall (D) is running for reelection
Rahall has outrun the political change in West Virginia so far, but Obama's dire approval ratings here are dangerous for the veteran incumbent. Republican groups are already pouring money into the seat: This district saw the most TV spending of any 2014 House race in the off-year, including an ad from Democrats' House Majority PAC seeking to offset the tide of conservative outside money. Meanwhile, Republicans have a candidate who personifies what's been going on in West Virginia: State Sen. Evan Jenkins was a Democrat until July, when he switched parties and announced his candidacy.

10. Arizona-01—Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is running for reelection
This massive Eastern Arizona district skews conservative, but Kirkpatrick proved a good fit for it last cycle, even though her staunch support for Obamacare puts her at odds with many residents. Now, three Republicans, including state House Speaker Andy Tobin, are vying to win it back. They are already trading accusations about insufficient conservatism, which will bear watching up to Arizona's late primary. One more thing to keep an eye out for throughout Arizona and here especially: Kirkpatrick won her second non-consecutive term with fewer than 50 percent of the vote as a libertarian candidate carried thousands of third-party votes. The GOP-controlled state legislature passed a law this year making ballot access for third-party candidates more difficult to prevent such scenarios, but it isn't in effect yet pending a popular referendum. Third-party candidates could again play a role in the outcome here.

See more at The Wire.

Crooked Bullshit Department

Once again a GOP controlled legislature is playing their neo-Fascist games and trying

to remove smaller opposition political parties from the ballot.
.
Aside from being corrupt, the small brained Arizona GOP did not think things through. Libertarians are often pro-drug legalization and pro-choice. Taking them off the ballot might just add votes to the Democrat as it did in the Virginia Lt. Governor's race.

Arizona’s 1st congressional district election, 2012
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Ann Kirkpatrick	122,774	48.79%	+0.91%
	Republican	Jonathan Paton	113,594	45.14%	-4.56%
	Libertarian	Kim Allen	15,227	6.05%	-0.45%
Turnout			251,595
	Democratic hold		Swing

D

Bullshit Corruption
Republican legislators in California, Arizona, Montana, Ohio and other states have worked to rig elections in their favor by passing laws effectively removing smaller opposition political parties from the ballot. Freedom is vanishing in America as voters are having their choices taken away from them on election day.
.
See our stories:
Ohio GOP tries to rig the 2014 elections
and
The GOP looks to rig Montana's elections

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Thomas Pinckney, Federalist

Commissioned as captain in the 1st South Carolina Regiment of the Continental Army. After seeing much action, he became an aide-de-camp to General Horatio Gates. He was captured by the British at the disastrous Battle of Camden in 1780. After recovering from his wounds, he was released in a prisoner exchange. In 1781 he fought under Lafayette in Virginia. Appointed by President George Washington to be the U.S. minister to Great Britain served as Envoy Extraordinary to Spain. The Federalist Party made him a candidate in the 1796 presidential election as the intended running-mate of John Adams. Served as Congressman and Governor of South Carolina. Served as a major general in the Army during the War of 1812.

Henry Lee III, Federalist

Major General "Light-Horse Harry" Lee fought at the battles of Paulus Hook, Guilford Court House, Eutaw Springs, Yorktown and the Whiskey Rebellion. Federalist Congressman from Virginia, Governor of Virginia. Father of Robert E. Lee. In 1812 Lee was attacked by a Jeffersonian mob of Democratic-Republicans while defending a Federalist newspaper from attack. Lee and the other Federalists were beaten and tortured by the mob over the next three hours. Lee was left partially blinded after hot wax was poured into his eyes. The men were left for dead. All were severely injured, and one Federalist, General James Lingan, died.

Frederick Frelinghuysen, Federalist

In the War of Independence he served in the New Jersey militia as an artillery captain, seeing action at Trenton and Monmouth. Attained the rank of colonel. Member of the Continental Congress. Served in the New Jersey General Assembly. Member of the New Jersey convention that ratified the United States Constitution in 1787. President George Washington appointed him as brigadier general in the United States Army for the 1790 campaign against the western Indians. Commissioned major general in the New Jersey militia in 1794, during the Whiskey Rebellion. Elected to the United States Senate.

Stephen Van Rensselaer, Federalist

Van Rensselaer served in the New York Assembly and Senate. He served as the Federalist Lt. Governor under John Jay. In 1786, Van Rensselaer was made a major of the militia. As a Major General in the War of 1812 he led an army in an invasion of Canada and fought at the Battle of Queenston Heights. In 1813 Van Rensselaer was the Federalist candidate for Governor of New York earning 48% of the vote. A shift of only 1,800 votes would have made him Governor. In 1822 he was elected to Congress as a Federalist serving until 1829.

WILLIAM PATERSON, Federalist

James Hillhouse, Federalist

Hillhouse served as captain in Governor's Foot Guards in the Revolutionary War. He was a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives, Congressman from Connecticut at-large, 1791–96, and a Federalist Party U. S. Senator from Connecticut, 1796–1810. He was the anti-slavery leader of the Congress in the early days of the Republic. After the Louisiana Purchase of 1803, Hillhouse fought to bar the importation of slaves into the Louisiana Territory. "I consider slavery as a serious evil," he proclaimed, "and wish to check it wherever I have authority." Two of Hillhouse's amendments restricting slavery passed the Congress and were signed into law.

Oliver Ellsworth, Federalist

In 1777 he was chosen as one of Connecticut's representatives in the Continental Congress. Served at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia as a delegate from Connecticut. On June 20, 1787 he proposed the use of the name the United States to identify the nation under the authority of the Constitution. United States Senator from Connecticut. Ellsworth was the principal exponent in the Senate of Alexander Hamilton's economic program. In 1796 Ellsworth was appointed by President George Washington to be Chief Justice of the United States. Served as United States Envoy Extraordinary to the Court of France. Ellsworth was a candidate in the 1796 United States Presidential election, receiving eleven votes in the electoral college.

Robert Goodloe Harper, Federalist

At the age of fifteen, Harper joined a volunteer corps of Cavalry and served in the American Revolutionary Army. Harper was elected as a Federalist Congressman from South Carolina (1795 - 1801). In 1798 at a dinner in Philadelphia honoring John Marshall, a group of U.S. Congressmen were discussing a recent demand made by the government of France. French vessels had been plundering US ships in a piratical manner. French foreign minister Talleyrand said the attacks would be stopped if the US paid him $250,000 and gave France 50,000 pounds sterling and a $100 million loan. As toasts were made, Harper sent his own defiant reply to the French with this toast: “Millions for defense but not one cent for tribute.” Harper served in the War of 1812, attaining the rank of major general. He moved to Maryland and was elected as a Federalist to the US Senate. He was an unsuccessful Federalist candidate for Vice President in the 1816 election. He also received one electoral vote for Vice President in the 1820 election.

Jacob Read, Federalist

Alexander Contee Hanson, Federalist

Member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Editor of the "Federal Republican", a Federalist Party newspaper in Baltimore. Four days after the beginning of the War of 1812 a mob of pro-war Democrat-Republicans destroyed his newspaper office. The paper moved to another building where Hanson was joined by a group of armed allies. When that building was besieged by another mob, Hanson and his group fired, killing two. Hanson and his group surrendered to the militia and were escorted to jail. That evening yet another mob stormed the jail. Hanson was beaten and left for dead. Hanson was elected as a Federalist to Congress in 1812 and 1814. In 1816 he was elected as a Federalist to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate until his death in 1819 at the age of 33.

William Bingham, Federalist

As a merchant he brought full loads of munitions & guns for the war. Served as a diplomat for Congress to France. Bingham marshaled the Second Troop of Philadelphia Light Horse. He served in the Continental Congress, 1st Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, State Senator, and US Senator. Federalists agreed to hold preliminary votings at the Bingham Estate before propositions were brought before Congress publicly, thus creating unanimity among party lines. Alexander Hamilton sought Bingham as his mentor in managing taxes, tariffs, and in constructing a national bank.

Ezekiel Whitman, Federalist

Whitman practiced law in New Gloucester, Maine and in Portland, Maine (both communities a district of Massachusetts until 1820). In 1808 Whitman was elected as a Federalist Congressman from Massachusetts and served one term. In 1816 he was again elected as a Federalist to the US House serving from 1817 to 1821. In 1819 he was a delegate to the convention that prepared the constitution which led to Maine's statehood. In 1820 he was elected as a Federalist Congressman from the new state of Maine serving until 1822. Chief Justice of the Maine Supreme Court from 1841 to 1848.

David Cobb, Federalist

Cobb studied medicine in Boston and practiced in Taunton, Massachusetts. He was a member of the Massachusetts Provincial Congress in 1775; lieutenant colonel of Jackson’s regiment in 1777 and 1778, serving in Rhode Island and New Jersey; was aide-de-camp on the staff of General George Washington; appointed major general of militia in 1786. Fought in the New York and New Jersey Campaign, the Battles of Springfield, Monmouth, Rhode Island and Shay's Rebellion. He served the Federalist Party as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, President of the State Senate and Congressman.

Josiah Parker, Federalist

In 1775 Parker enlisted in the Continental Army. He was commissioned a major in the 5th Virginia Regiment in 1776 and became its colonel in 1778. His regiment served in Virginia under General Charles Lee and was transferred to George Washington. The regiment thereafter saw action at the Battles of Trenton, Princeton, Brandywine, Germantown, Monmouth and the Siege of Charleston. During Cornwallis's Virginia campaign in 1781, the notorious Colonel Tarleton ransacked his home. He was elected to the First US Congress from Virginia serving for twelve years.

William Stephens Smith, Federalist

Smith married Abigail "Nabby" Adams, the daughter of President John Adams, and so was a brother-in-law of President John Quincy Adams, and an uncle of Charles Francis Adams. Served in the Revolutionary Army as aide-de-camp to General John Sullivan. Fought in the Battle of Long Island, was wounded at Harlem Heights, Battle of White Plains, was promoted to lieutenant colonel at the Battle of Trenton, fought at the Battle of Monmouth and Newport. He was on the staff of General Lafayette, became an adjutant in the Corps of Light Infantry, then transferred to the staff of George Washington. Elected as a Federalist Congressman from New York.

Oliver Wolcott, Jr., Federalist

John Rutledge, Jr., Federalist

Rutledge served as Congressman from South Carolina. A passionate Federalist, he supported Aaron Burr against Jefferson, founding the Charleston Courier (predecessor of the Post and Courier) to support his causes. Joining the South Carolina Militia in 1799, Rutledge served as commander of the Twenty-eighth Regiment in the War of 1812. He subsequently commanded the Seventh Brigade from 1816 until his death. Rutledge's life was fraught with controversy. Catching his wife (mother to his nine children) in a "clandestine visit" with Dr. Horace Senter, Rutledge challenged him to a duel, fatally wounding the doctor.

John Sergeant, Federalist

Member of the Pennsylvania state house of representatives 1808-1810; elected as a Federalist to Congress and served from 1815, to 1823. Sergeant was a strong backer of Henry Clay's American System and the Second Bank of the United States, and even traveled to Europe to negotiate loans to the Bank. He was a strong opponent of slavery who voted against the Missouri Compromise. In 1826 he was an envoy to the Panama Congress. Elected to Congress as an Adams candidate 1827 to 1829. Failing re-election he became legal counsel to the Bank of the United States. Sergeant was the Vice Presidential running mate in Henry Clay's campaign on the National Republican ticket in 1832. Elected as a Whig to Congress serving from 1837 to 1841.

John Laurance, Federalist

Philip Barton Key, Federalist

Key had been a Loyalist in the American Revolution. He served in the Maryland Loyalists Battalion as a captain. Key fought with the British Army from 1777 to 1781, until he was captured by the Spanish in Pensacola, Florida with the rest of his battalion. After the war he served as Mayor of Annapolis & member of the Maryland House of Delegates. Appointed a Federal Judge by John Adams. He was a Counsel to Justice Samuel Chase during Chase's Jefferson ordered impeachment show-trial in 1805. Elected as a Federalist to Congress from Maryland (1807 - 1813). Francis Scott Key was his nephew.